Right now Eliezer has gold at “16%+” and I have it at “8%.”
I think Eliezer would probably like to claim more than a factor of 2 of epistemic credit if this were to happen (e.g. a more significant update than if I’d put 1⁄3 probability on something and he’d put 2⁄3 probability).
If that’s right, then I think it would be good to publicly state a higher probability than 16% in advance, so that I can get correspondingly more credit in the worlds where this doesn’t happen.
Having posted this and emailed Eliezer, I’m now considering his prediction as 16% flat. So that’s 1 bit of epistemic credit for him if it happens 1/8th of a bit for me if it doesn’t.
Right now Eliezer has gold at “16%+” and I have it at “8%.”
I think Eliezer would probably like to claim more than a factor of 2 of epistemic credit if this were to happen (e.g. a more significant update than if I’d put 1⁄3 probability on something and he’d put 2⁄3 probability).
If that’s right, then I think it would be good to publicly state a higher probability than 16% in advance, so that I can get correspondingly more credit in the worlds where this doesn’t happen.
Having posted this and emailed Eliezer, I’m now considering his prediction as 16% flat. So that’s 1 bit of epistemic credit for him if it happens 1/8th of a bit for me if it doesn’t.