The Mark/June experiments seem flawed in that Mark and June have a pre-existing relationship that the subjects aren’t privy to. The 1994 paper you link says repeatedly that information not available to June shouldn’t affect our expectation of June’s interpretation of Mark’s message. But that’s bad Bayesianism. The other examples seem unproblematic in that we know that the subjects were being overconfident.
(below lies belaboring of this point)
Suppose we re-did the experiment, word for word, except the message went as follows:
“June, i akabad de junt lo restaurante ou você rekomendad, e devad dicher ou flo derigimedero, simplesima derigimedero.”
The correct assumption to make is that Mark is communicating successfully, since we have no other usable information. I would assign low probability that Mark is accidentally miscommunicating, and very low probability that June doesn’t speak whatever language that is.
Sarcasm between friends can be a language unto itself. My brother and I each have a vocal tone that sounds sincere to everyone else, but sarcastic to each other. I had a similar tone, my “lying voice,” that I used to signal to my college girlfriend that I was lying but that no casual acquaintance knew the meaning of. Similarly, the choice and repetition of the word marvelous signals sincerity to some pairs, signals sarcasm to others, and is ambiguous to others.
As near as I can tell from the 1994 paper, Keysar is simply missing the evidential chain: Mark’s experience at the restaurant is evidence of his intention. Mark’s intention plus his note or voicemail together constitute evidence of Mark’s model of June. Mark’s model of June is evidence of what June is actually like, and what June is actually like is evidence of how she will interpret the note.
The paper does edge tantalizingly close to acknowledging this when talking about Grice, but it still insists on calling this entirely reasonable kind of deduction an illusion.
A complete digression: it delights me that although I have no idea what language that is, I am fairly sure I understand every word in it except “derigimedoro,” which can fairly easily be classified by context. (Or, well, it could be given tone of voice, anyway.)
Which leads me to suspect it is probably Portuguese, with which I often have that relationship, although probably not Brazilian Portuguese, which I have slightly more familiarity with.
The Mark/June experiments seem flawed in that Mark and June have a pre-existing relationship that the subjects aren’t privy to. The 1994 paper you link says repeatedly that information not available to June shouldn’t affect our expectation of June’s interpretation of Mark’s message. But that’s bad Bayesianism. The other examples seem unproblematic in that we know that the subjects were being overconfident.
(below lies belaboring of this point)
Suppose we re-did the experiment, word for word, except the message went as follows:
“June, i akabad de junt lo restaurante ou você rekomendad, e devad dicher ou flo derigimedero, simplesima derigimedero.”
The correct assumption to make is that Mark is communicating successfully, since we have no other usable information. I would assign low probability that Mark is accidentally miscommunicating, and very low probability that June doesn’t speak whatever language that is.
Sarcasm between friends can be a language unto itself. My brother and I each have a vocal tone that sounds sincere to everyone else, but sarcastic to each other. I had a similar tone, my “lying voice,” that I used to signal to my college girlfriend that I was lying but that no casual acquaintance knew the meaning of. Similarly, the choice and repetition of the word marvelous signals sincerity to some pairs, signals sarcasm to others, and is ambiguous to others.
As near as I can tell from the 1994 paper, Keysar is simply missing the evidential chain: Mark’s experience at the restaurant is evidence of his intention. Mark’s intention plus his note or voicemail together constitute evidence of Mark’s model of June. Mark’s model of June is evidence of what June is actually like, and what June is actually like is evidence of how she will interpret the note.
The paper does edge tantalizingly close to acknowledging this when talking about Grice, but it still insists on calling this entirely reasonable kind of deduction an illusion.
A complete digression: it delights me that although I have no idea what language that is, I am fairly sure I understand every word in it except “derigimedoro,” which can fairly easily be classified by context. (Or, well, it could be given tone of voice, anyway.)
Which leads me to suspect it is probably Portuguese, with which I often have that relationship, although probably not Brazilian Portuguese, which I have slightly more familiarity with.
I think it would be “de regime de ouro” or in other words, a golden diet...
That’s a marvelous phrase.