(By “belief” I meant a belief that talkes place in someone’s head, and its existence is not necessarily communicated to anyone else. So an uttered statement “I think X” is a declaration of belief in X, not just a belief in X. A belief in X is just a fact about that person’s mind, without an accompanying declaration. In this framing, the version of the norm about beliefs (as opposed to declarations) is the norm not to think certain thoughts, not a norm to avoid sharing the observations about the fact that you are thinking them.)
I think a salient distinction between declarations of “I think X” and “it’s true that X” is a bad thing, as described in this comment. The distinction is that in the former case you might lack arguments for the belief. But if you don’t endorse the belief, it’s no longer a belief, and “I think X” is a bug in the mind that shouldn’t be called “belief”. If you do endorse it, then “I think X” does mean “X”. It is plausibly a true statement about the state of the universe, you just don’t know why; your mind inscrutably says that it is and you are inclined to believe it, pending further investigation.
So the statement “I think this is true of other people in spite of their claims to the contrary” should mean approximately the same as “This is true of other people in spite of their claims to the contrary”, and a meaningful distinction only appears with actual arguments about those statements, not with different placement of “I think”.
(By “belief” I meant a belief that talkes place in someone’s head, and its existence is not necessarily communicated to anyone else. So an uttered statement “I think X” is a declaration of belief in X, not just a belief in X. A belief in X is just a fact about that person’s mind, without an accompanying declaration. In this framing, the version of the norm about beliefs (as opposed to declarations) is the norm not to think certain thoughts, not a norm to avoid sharing the observations about the fact that you are thinking them.)
I think a salient distinction between declarations of “I think X” and “it’s true that X” is a bad thing, as described in this comment. The distinction is that in the former case you might lack arguments for the belief. But if you don’t endorse the belief, it’s no longer a belief, and “I think X” is a bug in the mind that shouldn’t be called “belief”. If you do endorse it, then “I think X” does mean “X”. It is plausibly a true statement about the state of the universe, you just don’t know why; your mind inscrutably says that it is and you are inclined to believe it, pending further investigation.
So the statement “I think this is true of other people in spite of their claims to the contrary” should mean approximately the same as “This is true of other people in spite of their claims to the contrary”, and a meaningful distinction only appears with actual arguments about those statements, not with different placement of “I think”.