Except that the chances weren’t 30%. That was a number generated by Nate Silver based on polling methodology that was not calibrated to the reality on the ground. I think you can find much deeper lessons here than that, especially given it seems to be a repeat of the Brexit phenomenon. Fool me once, fool me twice...
Except that the chances weren’t 30%. That was a number generated by Nate Silver based on polling methodology that was not calibrated to the reality on the ground. I think you can find much deeper lessons here than that, especially given it seems to be a repeat of the Brexit phenomenon. Fool me once, fool me twice...