Personally, I think the update most people should be making is the one getting the least attention. That even a 30% chance means 3 out of 10 times. Things far more unlikely than 3 out of 10 happen every day. But because we assign such importance to the election, we assign a much greater confidence to our predictions, even when we know we’re not that confident.
Except that the chances weren’t 30%. That was a number generated by Nate Silver based on polling methodology that was not calibrated to the reality on the ground. I think you can find much deeper lessons here than that, especially given it seems to be a repeat of the Brexit phenomenon. Fool me once, fool me twice...
Personally, I think the update most people should be making is the one getting the least attention. That even a 30% chance means 3 out of 10 times. Things far more unlikely than 3 out of 10 happen every day. But because we assign such importance to the election, we assign a much greater confidence to our predictions, even when we know we’re not that confident.
Except that the chances weren’t 30%. That was a number generated by Nate Silver based on polling methodology that was not calibrated to the reality on the ground. I think you can find much deeper lessons here than that, especially given it seems to be a repeat of the Brexit phenomenon. Fool me once, fool me twice...