I think you are understanding the implications of Solomonoff Induction mostly correctly.
As a philosopher, at first my goal was to prove from first principles what the correct way to update beliefs based on evidence was. Solve the Problem of Induction. I figured some variant of Bayesianism, probably Solomonoff Induction, might do the trick.
Then as I learned more, I figured this would take a while to say the least and that in the meantime it would be good to know what method of belief-updating seemed best, even if we couldn’t rigorously prove it.
Then I learned more, particularly about anthropics, and I set my sights even lower, to just have a method of belief-updating that, while still seeming wrong, at least has the property that following it wouldn’t drive me insane, i.e. adds up to normality in the broadest and weakest sense.
Even this turned out to be surprisingly difficult to achieve, at least if we also want our method to be interestingly different from “Use your intuition.”
Currently solomonoff induction or some variant of it is my favorite.
I think you are understanding the implications of Solomonoff Induction mostly correctly.
As a philosopher, at first my goal was to prove from first principles what the correct way to update beliefs based on evidence was. Solve the Problem of Induction. I figured some variant of Bayesianism, probably Solomonoff Induction, might do the trick.
Then as I learned more, I figured this would take a while to say the least and that in the meantime it would be good to know what method of belief-updating seemed best, even if we couldn’t rigorously prove it.
Then I learned more, particularly about anthropics, and I set my sights even lower, to just have a method of belief-updating that, while still seeming wrong, at least has the property that following it wouldn’t drive me insane, i.e. adds up to normality in the broadest and weakest sense.
Even this turned out to be surprisingly difficult to achieve, at least if we also want our method to be interestingly different from “Use your intuition.”
Currently solomonoff induction or some variant of it is my favorite.