Well, I was indeed expecting this kind of reply since it constitutes pretty much half the comments here on Lesswrong (half-baked gotcha + prescribe rationality, without answering the original questions).
So, if anyone else is reading this, I’d like to say that this post is for the imperfect people who have doubts about the real reasons of this war and who care to give an opinion.
(Sorry for the sarcastic tone, it is only because i grow tired of this type of comment (not only directed at me but at others too) and I don’t think it’s helpful. Nothing personal.)
I think the Dictator’s Handbook’s selectorate theory (less wrong review) can potentially help illuminate why a dictator would make moves that are bad for the country, which is that they can be motivated by internal coalition politics.
I also think that people generally feel like Putin was systematically misinformed due to surrounding himself by sycophants, and also probably by feeling like he’d tested the waters with Crimea and nobody really did anything to stop him, so this was relatively low risk.
Interesting. Staying in power had crossed my mind, though more specifically in the regard that a democratic Ukraine might somewhat pose a threat not just to Putin but to the whole regime. Didn’t know about selectorate theory, thanks for the reference.
On Putin being misinformed due to being surrounded by yes men, which has been a popular argument, I have more trouble believing. I suspect their regime is more competent than that. But also a fair point nonetheless.
I suspect their regime is more competent than that.
Why? They expected to take Kiev in 72 hours. Their military planning was clearly misinformed and their execution of the mi!itary operations clearly demonstrates a lot of incompetence. Why would you think that their broader decision making is any better? It’s not.
They could have been lying. There are flaws in the Russian army, for sure. And there could be planning flaws as well. But from there to think that they’re just outright naive/dumb still goes a considerable distance.
It seems unreasonable to me to expect all comments on a post to directly answer the explicit questions raised in the post.
Sometimes people highlight unexamined premises in your question that resolve your own confusion! I think such comments are very helpful!
I do not know if AllAmericanBreakfast is correct, but it does not seem implausible to me that wars in the past were confusing to intelligent people living at the time.
(I do agree that there is something about the tone of AllAmericanBreakfast’s comment that can illicit a feeling of irritation. Maybe the last sentence has a bit of condescension to it?)
“It seems unreasonable to me to expect all comments on a post to directly answer the explicit questions raised in the post.”
It seems arrogant to me to diagnose someone with a flawed world model and in need for Rationality 101 just based on a few paragraphs of what I consider to be uncontroversial statements (others might have different opinions but I don’t think my arguments are outlandish), and then just leave it at that, when the post asks for opinions (all other commenters gave opinions).
Well, I was indeed expecting this kind of reply since it constitutes pretty much half the comments here on Lesswrong (half-baked gotcha + prescribe rationality, without answering the original questions).
So, if anyone else is reading this, I’d like to say that this post is for the imperfect people who have doubts about the real reasons of this war and who care to give an opinion.
(Sorry for the sarcastic tone, it is only because i grow tired of this type of comment (not only directed at me but at others too) and I don’t think it’s helpful. Nothing personal.)
I think the Dictator’s Handbook’s selectorate theory (less wrong review) can potentially help illuminate why a dictator would make moves that are bad for the country, which is that they can be motivated by internal coalition politics.
I also think that people generally feel like Putin was systematically misinformed due to surrounding himself by sycophants, and also probably by feeling like he’d tested the waters with Crimea and nobody really did anything to stop him, so this was relatively low risk.
Interesting. Staying in power had crossed my mind, though more specifically in the regard that a democratic Ukraine might somewhat pose a threat not just to Putin but to the whole regime. Didn’t know about selectorate theory, thanks for the reference.
On Putin being misinformed due to being surrounded by yes men, which has been a popular argument, I have more trouble believing. I suspect their regime is more competent than that. But also a fair point nonetheless.
Why? They expected to take Kiev in 72 hours. Their military planning was clearly misinformed and their execution of the mi!itary operations clearly demonstrates a lot of incompetence. Why would you think that their broader decision making is any better? It’s not.
They could have been lying. There are flaws in the Russian army, for sure. And there could be planning flaws as well. But from there to think that they’re just outright naive/dumb still goes a considerable distance.
It seems unreasonable to me to expect all comments on a post to directly answer the explicit questions raised in the post.
Sometimes people highlight unexamined premises in your question that resolve your own confusion! I think such comments are very helpful!
I do not know if AllAmericanBreakfast is correct, but it does not seem implausible to me that wars in the past were confusing to intelligent people living at the time.
(I do agree that there is something about the tone of AllAmericanBreakfast’s comment that can illicit a feeling of irritation. Maybe the last sentence has a bit of condescension to it?)
“It seems unreasonable to me to expect all comments on a post to directly answer the explicit questions raised in the post.”
It seems arrogant to me to diagnose someone with a flawed world model and in need for Rationality 101 just based on a few paragraphs of what I consider to be uncontroversial statements (others might have different opinions but I don’t think my arguments are outlandish), and then just leave it at that, when the post asks for opinions (all other commenters gave opinions).
Mortals have doubts.