I think the Dictator’s Handbook’s selectorate theory (less wrong review) can potentially help illuminate why a dictator would make moves that are bad for the country, which is that they can be motivated by internal coalition politics.
I also think that people generally feel like Putin was systematically misinformed due to surrounding himself by sycophants, and also probably by feeling like he’d tested the waters with Crimea and nobody really did anything to stop him, so this was relatively low risk.
Interesting. Staying in power had crossed my mind, though more specifically in the regard that a democratic Ukraine might somewhat pose a threat not just to Putin but to the whole regime. Didn’t know about selectorate theory, thanks for the reference.
On Putin being misinformed due to being surrounded by yes men, which has been a popular argument, I have more trouble believing. I suspect their regime is more competent than that. But also a fair point nonetheless.
I suspect their regime is more competent than that.
Why? They expected to take Kiev in 72 hours. Their military planning was clearly misinformed and their execution of the mi!itary operations clearly demonstrates a lot of incompetence. Why would you think that their broader decision making is any better? It’s not.
They could have been lying. There are flaws in the Russian army, for sure. And there could be planning flaws as well. But from there to think that they’re just outright naive/dumb still goes a considerable distance.
I think the Dictator’s Handbook’s selectorate theory (less wrong review) can potentially help illuminate why a dictator would make moves that are bad for the country, which is that they can be motivated by internal coalition politics.
I also think that people generally feel like Putin was systematically misinformed due to surrounding himself by sycophants, and also probably by feeling like he’d tested the waters with Crimea and nobody really did anything to stop him, so this was relatively low risk.
Interesting. Staying in power had crossed my mind, though more specifically in the regard that a democratic Ukraine might somewhat pose a threat not just to Putin but to the whole regime. Didn’t know about selectorate theory, thanks for the reference.
On Putin being misinformed due to being surrounded by yes men, which has been a popular argument, I have more trouble believing. I suspect their regime is more competent than that. But also a fair point nonetheless.
Why? They expected to take Kiev in 72 hours. Their military planning was clearly misinformed and their execution of the mi!itary operations clearly demonstrates a lot of incompetence. Why would you think that their broader decision making is any better? It’s not.
They could have been lying. There are flaws in the Russian army, for sure. And there could be planning flaws as well. But from there to think that they’re just outright naive/dumb still goes a considerable distance.