I agree this is a common thread in Scott’s writing (though i bet I’ve read less than you did). As Tim Urban remarked recently, Scott is a master at conveying his confidence level in his writing. He knows both how to write with conviction when he’s very confident, and how to convey his uncertainty when he’s uncertain. It may come from confidence in his calibration about a claim instead of in the claim itself. It sounds much harder to write a post arguing that we should believe X with 80% confidence than just a post arguing that it’s true. And these are exactly the sort of posts Scott is exceptionally good at.
It may come from confidence in his calibration about a claim instead of in the claim itself.
Minding Our Way addresses this very phenomenon in Confidence All The Way Up. To my eye, Scott Alexander articulates his uncertainty with an air of meta-uncertainty; even when he sounds certain, he sounds tentatively uncertain. For example, his posts sometimes proceed in sections where each tells a strong story, but the next section contradicts the story, telling a new story from an opposite perspective. This gives a sense that no matter how strong an argument is, it could be knocked down by an even stronger argument which blindsides you. This kind of thing is actually another obsession of Scott’s (by my estimation).
In contrast, Nate Soares articulates his uncertainty with an air of meta-confidence; he’s uncertain, but he knows a lot about where that uncertainty comes from and what would change his mind. He can put numbers to it. If he’s not sure about what would change his mind, he can tell you about how he would figure it out. And so on.
I agree this is a common thread in Scott’s writing (though i bet I’ve read less than you did). As Tim Urban remarked recently, Scott is a master at conveying his confidence level in his writing. He knows both how to write with conviction when he’s very confident, and how to convey his uncertainty when he’s uncertain. It may come from confidence in his calibration about a claim instead of in the claim itself. It sounds much harder to write a post arguing that we should believe X with 80% confidence than just a post arguing that it’s true. And these are exactly the sort of posts Scott is exceptionally good at.
P.S: Cults are bad :)
Minding Our Way addresses this very phenomenon in Confidence All The Way Up. To my eye, Scott Alexander articulates his uncertainty with an air of meta-uncertainty; even when he sounds certain, he sounds tentatively uncertain. For example, his posts sometimes proceed in sections where each tells a strong story, but the next section contradicts the story, telling a new story from an opposite perspective. This gives a sense that no matter how strong an argument is, it could be knocked down by an even stronger argument which blindsides you. This kind of thing is actually another obsession of Scott’s (by my estimation).
In contrast, Nate Soares articulates his uncertainty with an air of meta-confidence; he’s uncertain, but he knows a lot about where that uncertainty comes from and what would change his mind. He can put numbers to it. If he’s not sure about what would change his mind, he can tell you about how he would figure it out. And so on.