If the AI and compute trend is just a blip, then doesn’t that return us to the previous trend line in the graph you show at the beginning, where we progress about 2 ooms a decade? (More accurately, 1 oom every 6-7 years, or, 8 ooms in 5 decades.)
Ignoring AI and compute, then: if we believe +12 ooms in 2016 means great danger in 2020, we should believe that roughly 75 years after 2016, we are at most four years from the danger zone.
Whereas, if we extrapolate the AI-and-compute trend, +12 ooms is like jumping 12 years in the future; so the idea of risk by 2030 makes sense.
So I don’t get how your conclusion can be so independent of AI-and-compute.
Sorry, somehow I missed this. Basically, the answer is that we definitely shouldn’t just extrapolate out the AI and compute trend into the future, and Ajeya’s and my predictions are not doing that. Instead we are assuming something more like the historic 2 ooms a decade trend, combined with some amount of increased spending conditional on us being close to AGI/TAI/etc. Hence my conditional claim above:
Conditional on +6 OOMs being enough with 2020′s ideas, it’ll happen by 2030. Indeed, conditional on +8 OOMs being enough with 2020′s ideas, I think it’ll probably happen by 2030.
If you want to discuss this more with me, I’d love to, how bout we book a call?
If the AI and compute trend is just a blip, then doesn’t that return us to the previous trend line in the graph you show at the beginning, where we progress about 2 ooms a decade? (More accurately, 1 oom every 6-7 years, or, 8 ooms in 5 decades.)
Ignoring AI and compute, then: if we believe +12 ooms in 2016 means great danger in 2020, we should believe that roughly 75 years after 2016, we are at most four years from the danger zone.
Whereas, if we extrapolate the AI-and-compute trend, +12 ooms is like jumping 12 years in the future; so the idea of risk by 2030 makes sense.
So I don’t get how your conclusion can be so independent of AI-and-compute.
Sorry, somehow I missed this. Basically, the answer is that we definitely shouldn’t just extrapolate out the AI and compute trend into the future, and Ajeya’s and my predictions are not doing that. Instead we are assuming something more like the historic 2 ooms a decade trend, combined with some amount of increased spending conditional on us being close to AGI/TAI/etc. Hence my conditional claim above:
If you want to discuss this more with me, I’d love to, how bout we book a call?