I think 65% that +12 OOMs would be enough isn’t crazy. I’m obviously more like 80%-90%, and therein lies the crux. (Fascinating that such a seemingly small difference can lead to such big downstream differences! This is why I wrote the post.)
If you’ve got 65% by +12, and 25% by +6, as Joe does, where is your 50% mark? idk maybe it’s at +10?
So, going to takeoffspeeds.com, and changing the training requirements parameter to +10 OOMs more than GPT-3 (so, 3e33) we get the following:
So, I think it’s reasonable to say that Joe’s stated credences here roughly imply 50% chance of singularity by 2033.
Great point, thanks for linking this!
I think 65% that +12 OOMs would be enough isn’t crazy. I’m obviously more like 80%-90%, and therein lies the crux. (Fascinating that such a seemingly small difference can lead to such big downstream differences! This is why I wrote the post.)
If you’ve got 65% by +12, and 25% by +6, as Joe does, where is your 50% mark? idk maybe it’s at +10?
So, going to takeoffspeeds.com, and changing the training requirements parameter to +10 OOMs more than GPT-3 (so, 3e33) we get the following:
So, I think it’s reasonable to say that Joe’s stated credences here roughly imply 50% chance of singularity by 2033.