[17] Example: One nitpick I have is that Ajeya projects that the price of compute for AI will fall more slowly than price-performance Moore’s Law, because said law has faltered recently. I instead think we should probably model this uncertainty, with (say) a 50% chance of Moore continuing and a 50% chance of continued slowdown. But even if it was a 100% chance of Moore continuing, this would only bring forward Ajeya’s median timeline to 2045-ish! (At least, according to my tinkering with her spreadsheet)
[17] Example: One nitpick I have is that Ajeya projects that the price of compute for AI will fall more slowly than price-performance Moore’s Law, because said law has faltered recently. I instead think we should probably model this uncertainty, with (say) a 50% chance of Moore continuing and a 50% chance of continued slowdown. But even if it was a 100% chance of Moore continuing, this would only bring forward Ajeya’s median timeline to 2045-ish! (At least, according to my tinkering with her spreadsheet)