“X got its start with government subsidies and contracts” is a veeeeerrry different claim from “X is not even economically viable without government subsidies.” The distinction between subsidies and contracts is important, and the distinction between getting started and long-term viability is important.
I don’t think if almost half their revenue is still coming from the government, and probably more of their space flight revenue, you can say SpaceX only got its start with government subsidies and contracts.
I also find the comparison with plane flights strange. There is a lot of value for consumers to go between countries. Business flights and tourism means many flights produce more value than they cost, giving us reasons to fund them. In comparison there aren’t many ways for a space tourist flight to produce more value than they consume.
So plane flights should not be the parallel drawn. Maybe deep-sea submarine rides are a more accurate comparison, which are still very expensive and dangerous. The primary customer of deep-sea submarine rides is still the government and government funded researchers.
I hope to drive the point home that no one should expect much progress in space tourism by default without AI advancements. We landed on the moon 53 years ago and despite the overwhelming scientific progress since, you still can’t take a flight there by choice.
Look, I’m not here to argue about the long-term trajectory of space flight with you, I’m here to object to your false and misleading claim about SpaceX. If you concede that point then I’ll go away.
What would SpaceX look like without government subsidies or contracts?
“X got its start with government subsidies and contracts” is a veeeeerrry different claim from “X is not even economically viable without government subsidies.” The distinction between subsidies and contracts is important, and the distinction between getting started and long-term viability is important.
I don’t think if almost half their revenue is still coming from the government, and probably more of their space flight revenue, you can say SpaceX only got its start with government subsidies and contracts.
I also find the comparison with plane flights strange. There is a lot of value for consumers to go between countries. Business flights and tourism means many flights produce more value than they cost, giving us reasons to fund them. In comparison there aren’t many ways for a space tourist flight to produce more value than they consume.
So plane flights should not be the parallel drawn. Maybe deep-sea submarine rides are a more accurate comparison, which are still very expensive and dangerous. The primary customer of deep-sea submarine rides is still the government and government funded researchers.
I hope to drive the point home that no one should expect much progress in space tourism by default without AI advancements. We landed on the moon 53 years ago and despite the overwhelming scientific progress since, you still can’t take a flight there by choice.
Look, I’m not here to argue about the long-term trajectory of space flight with you, I’m here to object to your false and misleading claim about SpaceX. If you concede that point then I’ll go away.
Spacex would exist but it would look very different.