Dath ilan doesn’t actually exist. It’s a fantasy journey in Eliezer’s head. Nobody has ever subjected it to the rigors of experimentation and attempts at falsification.
The world around us does exist. And things are not going well! We had a global pandemic that was probably caused by government labs that do research into pandemics, and then covered up by scientists who are supposed to tell us the truth about pandemics. THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED! God sampled from the actual generating function for the universe and apparently that outcome was sufficiently high to have been picked.
A world without any advanced AI tech is probably not a good world; collapsing birthrates, rent extraction, dysgenics and biorisk are probably fatal.
I’m not updating about what’s actually likely to happen on Earth based on dath ilan.
It seems uncontroversially true that a world where the median IQ was 140 or whatever would look radically different (and better) than the world we currently live in. We do not in fact, live in such a world.
But taking a hypothetical premise and then extrapolating what else would be different if the premise were true, is a generally useful tool for building understanding and pumping on intuitions in philosophy, mathematics, science, and forecasting.
If you say “but the premise is false!!111!” you’re missing the point.
What you should have said, therefore, is “Dath ilan is fiction; it’s debatable whether the premises of the world would actually result in the happy conclusion depicted. However, I think it’s probably directionally correct—it does seem to me that if Eliezer was the median, the world would be dramatically better overall, in roughly the ways depicted in the story.”
So I think the remaining implied piece is that humans are getting smarter? I actually think we are and will continue to, in the relevant ways. But that’s quite debatable.
I don’t think that will happen as a foregone conclusion, but if we pour resources into improved methods of education (for children and adults), global health, pronatalist policies in wealthy countries, and genetic engineering, it might at least make a difference. I wouldn’t necessarily say any of this is likely to work or even happen, but it seems at least worth a shot.
I was thinking more of the memetic spread of “wisdom”—principles that make you effectively smarter in important areas. Rationality is one vector, but there are many others. I realize the internet is making us dumber on average in many ways, but I think there’s a countercurrent of spreading good advice that’s recognized as good advice. Anyone with an internet connection can now get smarter by watching attractively-packaged videos. There’s a lot of misleading and confusing stuff, but my impression is that a lot of the cream does rise to the top if you’re actively searching for wisdom in any particular area.
I hate to have to say it, but you are generalizing from fictional evidence
Dath ilan doesn’t actually exist. It’s a fantasy journey in Eliezer’s head. Nobody has ever subjected it to the rigors of experimentation and attempts at falsification.
The world around us does exist. And things are not going well! We had a global pandemic that was probably caused by government labs that do research into pandemics, and then covered up by scientists who are supposed to tell us the truth about pandemics. THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED! God sampled from the actual generating function for the universe and apparently that outcome was sufficiently high to have been picked.
A world without any advanced AI tech is probably not a good world; collapsing birthrates, rent extraction, dysgenics and biorisk are probably fatal.
I’m not updating about what’s actually likely to happen on Earth based on dath ilan.
It seems uncontroversially true that a world where the median IQ was 140 or whatever would look radically different (and better) than the world we currently live in. We do not in fact, live in such a world.
But taking a hypothetical premise and then extrapolating what else would be different if the premise were true, is a generally useful tool for building understanding and pumping on intuitions in philosophy, mathematics, science, and forecasting.
If you say “but the premise is false!!111!” you’re missing the point.
What you should have said, therefore, is “Dath ilan is fiction; it’s debatable whether the premises of the world would actually result in the happy conclusion depicted. However, I think it’s probably directionally correct—it does seem to me that if Eliezer was the median, the world would be dramatically better overall, in roughly the ways depicted in the story.”
So I think the remaining implied piece is that humans are getting smarter? I actually think we are and will continue to, in the relevant ways. But that’s quite debatable.
I don’t think that will happen as a foregone conclusion, but if we pour resources into improved methods of education (for children and adults), global health, pronatalist policies in wealthy countries, and genetic engineering, it might at least make a difference. I wouldn’t necessarily say any of this is likely to work or even happen, but it seems at least worth a shot.
I was thinking more of the memetic spread of “wisdom”—principles that make you effectively smarter in important areas. Rationality is one vector, but there are many others. I realize the internet is making us dumber on average in many ways, but I think there’s a countercurrent of spreading good advice that’s recognized as good advice. Anyone with an internet connection can now get smarter by watching attractively-packaged videos. There’s a lot of misleading and confusing stuff, but my impression is that a lot of the cream does rise to the top if you’re actively searching for wisdom in any particular area.