What sorts of measures do you have in mind, when you say ”...a more realistic measure?” A simplicity measure will still yield the result that most people like us are in simulations, I think.
I interpret you as saying that P(ourdata|simulated) < P(ourdata|not-simulated). This is plausible, but debatable—e.g. the joke that Elon Musk is probably in a simulation because he’s such a special person living such a crazy life. Also more seriously the arguments that we are at a special time in history, precisely the time that you would expect most simulations to be of. Also one might think that most non-simulated minds exist in some sort of post-singularity world, whereas plausibly most simulated minds exist in what appears to be a pre-singularity world...
What sorts of measures do you have in mind, when you say ”...a more realistic measure?” A simplicity measure will still yield the result that most people like us are in simulations, I think.
I interpret you as saying that P(ourdata|simulated) < P(ourdata|not-simulated). This is plausible, but debatable—e.g. the joke that Elon Musk is probably in a simulation because he’s such a special person living such a crazy life. Also more seriously the arguments that we are at a special time in history, precisely the time that you would expect most simulations to be of. Also one might think that most non-simulated minds exist in some sort of post-singularity world, whereas plausibly most simulated minds exist in what appears to be a pre-singularity world...