If things go pear-shaped, she just fades and tries something else.
That an error has relatively small cost (though don’t forget opportunity cost), is no argument for making the error, when it could be just not made. It costs nothing to not make the error, so the costs of consequences of making the error are not relevant, as there is no tradeoff.
Edit: Also, the cost is not small for Elspeth, so this argument I disagree with doesn’t even address one of the two idiot balls.
It doesn’t, which Elspeth knows
It wasn’t obvious that she can reliably feel the effect of lies on her power, and that there is a reliable dependence of efficiency of hiding-into-unimportance on Elspeth’s perception of her power. The direct measurement is Allirea’s sense of efficiency of hiding, and it’s accessible to experiment, so it obviously should be tested (unless both of my questions in the first statement of this paragraph receive negative answers, which I can’t see how can be done for the second one without testing).
The direct measurement is Allirea’s sense of efficiency of hiding, and it’s accessible to experiment
When Allirea fades someone else, Allirea herself is not affected by this. The test of how effectively Elspeth is hidden is how people other than Allirea react to her. Saeed lets her out of the cell, which constitutes excellent evidence that she can fade well enough to get the job done.
The test of how effectively Elspeth is hidden is how people other than Allirea react to her. Saeed lets her out of the cell, which constitutes excellent evidence that she can fade well enough to get the job done.
Yes, this tells that changing lies work. This doesn’t address the question of efficacy of muttering the same lie.
Also, that “I’m 51, I’m 52, …” works is indirect evidence that constant lies work as well, and proof-of-concept of how figuring out an efficient low-creativity algorithm can indeed bear fruit.
When Allirea fades someone else, Allirea herself is not affected by this.
She noticed that Elspeth “announces her presence” loudly, which is a perception on the same scale.
She noticed that Elspeth “announces her presence” loudly, which is a perception on the same scale.
Yes, but Allirea seems to effect people other than herself. And so if she hides Elspeth to everyone but Allirea, her perception of how “loud” Elspeth is won’t change.
Allirea wouldn’t be sensing how well her fading works on Elspeth. She would just be sensing how well Elspeth’s “counter-fading” power is working. And it seems like she can sense that.
Elspeth doesn’t need to feel the effect of lies, she can just remember what worked better and what worked worse when she lied to people in the past, based on the reactions of those people.
I agree that it would have been wiser for Elspeth to take some time to confirm that she could carry out plans (of varying complexities) while faded and thus not remembering the reasoning behind her actions. But hey, she’s 5. Probably a lot more brain power than a human child, but brain power doesn’t necessarily equal sense. She can have the idiot ball for awhile.
Hmm, I suppose it’s also possible that Allirea didn’t really give her the option to think things over and be cautious. She told her the plan and then they did it, and once Elspeth was faded she couldn’t think about that stuff. So maybe it’s all on Allirea? Well, but speed of thinking actually is one of those things that would come with brain power, so if Elspeth was going to think of it at all, she probably could have thought of it in the time she had.
Allirea could have been more conscientious about confirming Elspeth’s ability to hold up her end of the deal. Then again, if they found that Elspeth couldn’t do it, maybe there’s no alternative. Perhaps it’s this or nothing. Experimenting wouldn’t allow them to alter the plan to make up for Elspeth’s inability, because there just isn’t any other possible plan. So, it might be reasonable to just go for it, and if it doesn’t work, oh well, not that big a deal, in Allirea’s mind.
Possibly Elspeth, if she thought she couldn’t carry out the plan, would have preferred not to do anything at all, for fear of harsher repercussions from the Volturi. But maybe not, if she is confident that they want to use Jacob and that that will limit how harshly they treat her.
That an error has relatively small cost (though don’t forget opportunity cost), is no argument for making the error, when it could be just not made. It costs nothing to not make the error, so the costs of consequences of making the error are not relevant, as there is no tradeoff.
Edit: Also, the cost is not small for Elspeth, so this argument I disagree with doesn’t even address one of the two idiot balls.
It wasn’t obvious that she can reliably feel the effect of lies on her power, and that there is a reliable dependence of efficiency of hiding-into-unimportance on Elspeth’s perception of her power. The direct measurement is Allirea’s sense of efficiency of hiding, and it’s accessible to experiment, so it obviously should be tested (unless both of my questions in the first statement of this paragraph receive negative answers, which I can’t see how can be done for the second one without testing).
When Allirea fades someone else, Allirea herself is not affected by this. The test of how effectively Elspeth is hidden is how people other than Allirea react to her. Saeed lets her out of the cell, which constitutes excellent evidence that she can fade well enough to get the job done.
Yes, this tells that changing lies work. This doesn’t address the question of efficacy of muttering the same lie.
Also, that “I’m 51, I’m 52, …” works is indirect evidence that constant lies work as well, and proof-of-concept of how figuring out an efficient low-creativity algorithm can indeed bear fruit.
She noticed that Elspeth “announces her presence” loudly, which is a perception on the same scale.
Yes, but Allirea seems to effect people other than herself. And so if she hides Elspeth to everyone but Allirea, her perception of how “loud” Elspeth is won’t change.
Allirea wouldn’t be sensing how well her fading works on Elspeth. She would just be sensing how well Elspeth’s “counter-fading” power is working. And it seems like she can sense that.
Elspeth doesn’t need to feel the effect of lies, she can just remember what worked better and what worked worse when she lied to people in the past, based on the reactions of those people.
I agree that it would have been wiser for Elspeth to take some time to confirm that she could carry out plans (of varying complexities) while faded and thus not remembering the reasoning behind her actions. But hey, she’s 5. Probably a lot more brain power than a human child, but brain power doesn’t necessarily equal sense. She can have the idiot ball for awhile.
Hmm, I suppose it’s also possible that Allirea didn’t really give her the option to think things over and be cautious. She told her the plan and then they did it, and once Elspeth was faded she couldn’t think about that stuff. So maybe it’s all on Allirea? Well, but speed of thinking actually is one of those things that would come with brain power, so if Elspeth was going to think of it at all, she probably could have thought of it in the time she had.
Allirea could have been more conscientious about confirming Elspeth’s ability to hold up her end of the deal. Then again, if they found that Elspeth couldn’t do it, maybe there’s no alternative. Perhaps it’s this or nothing. Experimenting wouldn’t allow them to alter the plan to make up for Elspeth’s inability, because there just isn’t any other possible plan. So, it might be reasonable to just go for it, and if it doesn’t work, oh well, not that big a deal, in Allirea’s mind.
Possibly Elspeth, if she thought she couldn’t carry out the plan, would have preferred not to do anything at all, for fear of harsher repercussions from the Volturi. But maybe not, if she is confident that they want to use Jacob and that that will limit how harshly they treat her.
Yeah, it’s all maybes with me. :)