Is there a mechanism for betting on individual drugs more precisely than just picking the stock for the companies which hold them? A prediction market for drugs?
Related through the prediction of which drugs will succeed and which won’t: are you familiar with Roger M. Stein? He does financial engineering research with MIT, and has done some work related to different ways to fund drug research. In particular, he suggested a fund for securities made up of pharmaceutical IP which would work by re-securitizing a batch of drugs after each stage in the trials (as I understand it).
Fascinating and also excellent news.
Is there a mechanism for betting on individual drugs more precisely than just picking the stock for the companies which hold them? A prediction market for drugs?
I don’t believe so (at least I’ve never heard of a public one; sometimes large companies have internal prediction markets).
Related through the prediction of which drugs will succeed and which won’t: are you familiar with Roger M. Stein? He does financial engineering research with MIT, and has done some work related to different ways to fund drug research. In particular, he suggested a fund for securities made up of pharmaceutical IP which would work by re-securitizing a batch of drugs after each stage in the trials (as I understand it).
The pitch for the fund in a TED talk is here.
The list of publications from his website are here: http://www.rogermstein.com/publication-list/
I think the relevant papers are “Commercializing biomedical research through securitization techniques,” “Can Financial Engineering Cure Cancer?”, and “Financing drug discovery for orphan diseases”.
My knowledge of finance is not good, so I am hoping someone can verify whether this passes the sniff test.