Kaj’s shortform feed
Similar to other people’s shortform feeds, short stuff that people on LW might be interested in, but which doesn’t feel like it’s worth a separate post. (Will probably be mostly cross-posted from my Facebook wall.)
Similar to other people’s shortform feeds, short stuff that people on LW might be interested in, but which doesn’t feel like it’s worth a separate post. (Will probably be mostly cross-posted from my Facebook wall.)
I doubt that anyone even remembers this, but I feel compelled to say it: there was some conversation about AI maybe 10 years ago, possibly on LessWrong, where I offered the view that abstract math might take AI a particularly long time to master compared to other things.
I don’t think I ever had a particularly good reason for that belief other than a vague sense of “math is hard for humans so maybe it’s hard for machines too”. But formally considering that prediction falsified now.
Even a year ago, I would have bet extremely high odds that data analyst-type jobs would be replaced well before postdocs in math and theoretical physics. It’s wild that the reverse is plausible now
Do you think there’s any other updates you should make as well?
Relative to 10 (or whatever) years ago? Sure I’ve made quite a few of those already. By this point it’d be hard to remember my past beliefs well enough to make a list of differences.
Due to o3 specifically? I’m not sure, I have difficulty telling how significant things like ARC-AGI are in practice, but the general result of “improvements in programming and math continue” doesn’t seem like a huge surprise by itself. It’s certainly an update in favor of the current paradigm continuing to scale and pay back the funding put into it, though.
Math is just a language (a very simple one, in fact). Thus, abstract math is right in the wheelhouse for something made for language. Large Language Models are called that for a reason, and abstract math doesn’t rely on the world itself, just the language of math. LLMs lack grounding, but abstract math doesn’t require it at all. It seems more surprising how badly LLMs did math, not that they made progress. (Admittedly, if you actually mean ten years ago, that’s before LLMs were really a thing. The primary mechanism that distinguishes the transformer was only barely invented then.)
I disagree with this, in that good mathematics definitely requires at least a little understanding of the world, and if I were to think about why LLMs succeeded at math, I’d probably point to the fact that it’s an unusually verifiable task, relative to the vast majority of tasks, and would also think that the fact that you can get a lot of high-quality data also helps LLMs.
Only programming shares these traits to an exceptional degree, and outside of mathematics/programming, I expect less transferability, though not effectively 0 transferability.
Math is definitely just a language. It is a combination of symbols and a grammar about how they go together. It’s what you come up with when you maximally abstract away the real world, and the part about not needing any grounding was specifically about abstract math, where there is no real world.
Verifiable is obviously important for training (since we could give effectively infinite training data), but the reason it is verifiable so easily is because it doesn’t rely on the world. Also, note that programming languages are also just that, languages (and quite simple ones) but abstract math is even less dependent on the real world than programming.
Yeah I’m not sure of the exact date but it was definitely before LLMs were a thing.
Occasionally I find myself nostalgic for the old, optimistic transhumanism of which e.g. this 2006 article is a good example. After some people argued that radical life extension would increase our population too much, the author countered that oh, that’s not an issue, here are some calculations showing that our planet could support a population of 100 billion with ease!
In those days, the ethos seemed to be something like… first, let’s apply a straightforward engineering approach to eliminating aging, so that nobody who’s alive needs to worry about dying from old age. Then let’s get nanotechnology and molecular manufacturing to eliminate scarcity and environmental problems. Then let’s re-engineer the biosphere and human psychology for maximum well-being, such as by using genetic engineering to eliminate suffering and/or making it a violation of the laws of physics to try to harm or coerce someone.
So something like “let’s fix the most urgent pressing problems and stabilize the world, then let’s turn into a utopia”. X-risk was on the radar, but the prevailing mindset seemed to be something like “oh, x-risk? yeah, we need to get to that too”.
That whole mindset used to feel really nice. Alas, these days it feels like it was mostly wishful thinking. I haven’t really seen that spirit in a long time; the thing that passes for optimism these days is “Moloch hasn’t entirely won (yet)”. If “overpopulation? no problem!” felt like a prototypical article to pick from the Old Optimistic Era, then Today’s Era feels more described by Inadequate Equilibria and a post saying “if you can afford it, consider quitting your job now so that you can help create aligned AI before someone else creates unaligned AI and kills us all”.
Today’s philosophy seems more like “let’s try to ensure that things won’t be quite as horrible as they are today, and if we work really hard and put all of our effort into it, there’s a chance that maybe we and all of our children won’t die.” Most of the world-saving energy seems to have gone into effective altruism, where people work on issues like making the US prison system suck less or distributing bednets to fight malaria. (Causes that I thoroughly support, to be clear, but also ones where the level of ambition seems quite a bit lower than in “let’s make it a violation of the laws of physics to try to harm people”.)
I can’t exactly complain about this. Litany of Tarski and alll: if the Old Optimistic Era was hopelessly naive and over-optimistic, then I wish to believe that it was hopelessly naive and over-optimistic, and believe in the more realistic predictions instead. And it’s not clear that the old optimism ever actually achieved much of anything in the way of its grandiose goals, whereas more “grounded” organizations such as GiveWell have achieved quite a lot.
But it still feels like there’s something valuable that we’ve lost.
For what it’s worth, I get the sense that the Oxford EA research community is pretty optimistic about the future, but generally seem to believe the risks are just more pragmatic to pay attention to.
Anders Sandberg is doing work on the potential of humans (or related entities) expanding through the universe. The phrase “Cosmic Endowment” is said every here and there. Stuart Armstrong recently created a calendar of the year 12020.
I personally have a very hard time imagining exactly what things will be like post-AGI or what we could come up with now that would make them better, conditional on it going well. It seems like future research could figure a lot of those details out. But I’m in some ways incredibly optimistic about the future. This model gives a very positive result, though also a not very specific one.
I think my personal view is something like, “Things seem super high-EV in expectation. In many ways, we as a species seem to be in a highly opportunistic setting. Let’s generally try to be as careful as possible to make sure we don’t mess up.”
Note that high-EV does not mean high-probability. It could be that we have a 0.1% chance of surviving, as a species, but if we do, there would be many orders of magnitude net benefit. I use this not because I believe we have a 0.1% chance, but rather because I think it’s a pretty reasonable lower bound.
I think that although the new outlook is more pessimistic, it is also more uncertain. So, yes, maybe we will become extinct, but maybe we will build a utopia.
It likely reflects a broader, general trend towards pessimism in our culture. Futurism was similarly pessimistic in the 1970s, and turned more generally optimistic in the 1980s. Right now we’re in a pessimistic period, but as things change in the future we can probably expect more optimism, including within futurism, if the zeitgeist becomes more optimistic.
Here’s a mistake which I’ve sometimes committed and gotten defensive as a result, and which I’ve seen make other people defensive when they’ve committed the same mistake.
Take some vaguely defined, multidimensional thing that people could do or not do. In my case it was something like “trying to understand other people”.
Now there are different ways in which you can try to understand other people. For me, if someone opened up and told me of their experiences, I would put a lot of effort into really trying to understand their perspective, to try to understand how they thought and why they felt that way.
At the same time, I thought that everyone was so unique that there wasn’t much point in trying to understand them by any *other* way than hearing them explain their experience. So I wouldn’t really, for example, try to make guesses about people based on what they seemed to have in common with other people I knew.
Now someone comes and happens to mention that I “don’t seem to try to understand other people”.
I get upset and defensive because I totally do, this person hasn’t understood me at all!
And in one sense, I’m right—it’s true that there’s a dimension of “trying to understand other people” that I’ve put a lot of effort into, in which I’ve probably invested more than other people have.
And in another sense, the other person is right—while I was good at one dimension of “trying to understand other people”, I was severely underinvested in others. And I had not really even properly acknowledged that “trying to understand other people” had other important dimensions too, because I was justifiably proud of my investment in one of them.
But from the point of view of someone who *had* invested in those other dimensions, they could see the aspects in which I was deficient compared to them, or maybe even compared to the median person. (To some extent I thought that my underinvestment in those other dimensions was *virtuous*, because I was “not making assumptions about people”, which I’d been told was good.) And this underinvestment showed in how I acted.
So the mistake is that if there’s a vaguely defined, multidimensional skill and you are strongly invested in one of its dimensions, you might not realize that you are deficient in the others. And if someone says that you are not good at it, you might understandably get defensive and upset, because you can only think of the evidence which says you’re good at it… while not even realizing the aspects that you’re missing out on, which are obvious to the person who *is* better at them.
Now one could say that the person giving this feedback should be more precise and not make vague, broad statements like “you don’t seem to try to understand other people”. Rather they should make some more specific statement like “you don’t seem to try to make guesses about other people based on how they compare to other people you know”.
And sure, this could be better. But communication is hard; and often the other person *doesn’t* know the exact mistake that you are making. They can’t see exactly what is happening in your mind: they can only see how you behave. And they see you behaving in a way which, to them, looks like you are not trying to understand other people. (And it’s even possible that *they* are deficient in the dimension that *you* are good at, so it doesn’t even occur to them that “trying to understand other people” could mean anything else than what it means to them.)
So they express it in the way that it looks to them, because before you get into a precise discussion about what exactly each of you means by that term, that’s the only way in which they can get their impression across.
It’s natural to get defensive when someone says that you’re bad at something you thought you were good at. But the things we get defensive about, are also things that we frequently have blindspots around. Now if this kind of a thing seems to happen to me again, I try to make an effort to see whether the skill in question might have a dimension that I’ve been neglecting.
Once I’ve calmed down and stopped being defensive, that is.
(see also this very related essay by Ferrett)
The essay “Don’t Fight Your Default Mode Network” is probably the most useful piece of productivity advice that I’ve read in a while.
Basically, “procrastination” during intellectual work is actually often not wasted time, but rather your mind taking the time to process the next step. For example, if I’m writing an essay, I might glance at a different browser tab while I’m in the middle of writing a particular sentence. But often this is actually *not* procrastination; rather it’s my mind stopping to think about the best way to continue that sentence. And this turns out to be a *better* way to work than trying to keep my focus completely on the essay!
Realizing this has changed my attention management from “try to eliminate distractions” to “try to find the kinds of distractions which don’t hijack your train of thought”. If I glance at a browser tab and get sucked into a two-hour argument, then that still damages my workflow. The key is to try to shift your pattern towards distractions like “staring into the distance for a moment”, so that you can take a brief pause without getting pulled into anything different.
I only now made the connection that Sauron lost because he fell prey to the Typical Mind Fallacy (assuming that everyone’s mind works the way your own does). Gandalf in the book version of The Two Towers:
I was thinking of a friend and recalled some pleasant memories with them, and it occurred to me that I have quite a few good memories about them, but I don’t really recall them very systematically. I just sometimes remember them at random. So I thought, what if I wrote down all the pleasant memories of my friend that I could recall?
Not only could I then occasionally re-read that list to get a nice set of pleasant memories, that would also reinforce associations between them, making it more likely that recalling one—or just being reminded of my friend in general—would also bring to mind all the others.
(This was in part inspired by Steve Andreas’s notion of building a self-concept. There you build self-esteem by taking memories of yourself where you exhibited some positive quality, and intentionally associate them together under some heading such as “lovable” or “intelligent”, so that they become interconnected exemplars of a quality that you have rather than being isolated instances.)
So I did, and that usual thing happened where I started out with just three or so particularly salient memories, but then in the process of writing them down my mind generated a few more, until I had quite a long list. It felt really good; now I want to write similar lists about all my close friends.
Interestingly I noticed that the majority of the memories on my list were ones where I’d helped my friend and they’d been happy as a result, rather than the other way around. This does say something about me finding it easier to help people than to ask for help, but might also be related to the finding that I’ve heard quoted, that giving a gift makes people happier than receiving one.
This is a great idea!
I also had somewhat the inclination to do this, when I first read about Anki on Michael Nielsen’s -Aumenting Cognition, he speaks about using Anki to store memories and friends’ characteristics such as food preferences (he talks about this on the section: “The challenges of using Anki to store facts about friends and family”).
I did not do this because I did not want to meddle with Anki and personal stuff but I found another similar solution which is MONICA a “Personal Relationship Manager”, the good thing about it is that it’s open source and easy to set up. I did use it for a bit and found that it was very easy to use and had all the things one may want.
I ended up not going through using the app at the time, but considering the post and the fact that people love when you remember facts about them (I also’d like to remember things about them!) I may pick it up again.
For a few weeks or so, I’ve been feeling somewhat amazed at how much less suffering there seems to be associated with different kinds of pain (emotional, physical, etc.), seemingly as a consequence of doing meditation and related practices. The strength of pain, as measured by something like the intensity of it as an attention signal, seems to be roughly the same as before, but despite being equally strong, it feels much less aversive.
To clarify, this is not during some specific weird meditative state, but feels like a general ongoing adjustment even when I feel otherwise normal (or otherwise like shit).
I can’t help but to wonder whether the difference in intuitions for/against suffering-focused ethics is a consequence of different people’s brains being naturally differently configured with regard to their pain:suffering ratio. That is, some people will experience exactly the same amount of pain, unpleasant emotions etc. during their life as others, but for some people the same intensity of pain will translate to a different intensity of suffering. And then we will have people who say things like “life *is* suffering and possibly a net negative for many if not most” as well as people who say things like “suffering isn’t any big deal and a pretty uninteresting thing to focus on”, staring at each other in mutual incomprehension.
Interesting, I wonder if there is a way to test it, given that it seems hard to measure the pain:suffering ratio of a person directly...
Is there a form of meditation that makes pain more aversive? Then we can have people who say “suffering isn’t any big deal and a pretty uninteresting thing to focus on” do that, and see if they end up agreeing with suffering-focused ethics?
While this is a brilliant idea in the sense of being a novel way to test a hypothesis, trying to reprogram people’s brains so as to make them experience more suffering strikes me as an ethically dubious way of doing the test. :)
I wouldn’t expect just a one-off meditation session where they experienced strong suffering to be enough, but rather I would expect there to be a gradual shift in intuitions after living with an altered ratio for a long enough time.
Regarding measurement of pain:suffering ratio
A possible approach would be to use self-reports (the thing that doctor’s always ask about, pain scale 1-10) vs revealed preferences (how much painkillers were requested? What trade-offs for pain relief do patients choose?).
Obviously this kind of relation is flawed on several levels: Reported pain scale depends a lot on personal experience (very painful events permanently change the scale, ala “I am in so much pain that I cannot walk or concentrate, but compared to my worst experience… let’s say 3?”). Revealed preferences depend a lot on how much people care about the alternatives (e.g. if people have bad health insurance or really important stuff to do they might accept a lot of subjective suffering in order to get out of hospital one day early). Likewise, time preference might enter a lot into revealed preference.
Despite these shortcomings, that’s where I would start thinking about what such a ratio would mean. If one actually did a study with new questionaires, one should definitely ask patients for some examples in order to gauge their personal pain-scale, and combine actual revealed preferences with answers to hypothetical questions “how much money would pain relief be worth to you? How much risk of death? How many days of early hospital release? etc”, even if the offer is not actually on the table.
Apparently there have been a few studies on something like this: “[Long-Term Meditators], compared to novices, had a significant reduction of self-reported unpleasantness, but not intensity, of painful stimuli, while practicing Open Monitoring.”
This paper (Keno Juechems & Christopher Summerfield: Where does value come from? Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 2019) seems interesting from an “understanding human values” perspective.
Some choice quotes:
This framework of having multiple axes representing different goals, and trying to minimize the sum of distances to their setpoints, also reminds me a bit of moridinamael’s Complex Behavior from Simple (Sub)Agents.
Recent papers relevant to earlier posts in my multiagent sequence:
Understanding the Higher-Order Approach to Consciousness. Richard Brown, Hakwan Lau, Joseph E.LeDoux. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, Volume 23, Issue 9, September 2019, Pages 754-768.
Reviews higher-order theories (HOT) of consciousness and their relation to global workspace theories (GWT) of consciousness, suggesting that HOT and GWT are complementary. Consciousness and the Brain, of course, is a GWT theory; whereas HOT theories suggest that some higher-order representation is (also) necessary for us to be conscious of something. I read the HOT models as being closely connected to introspective awareness; e.g. the authors suggest a connection between alexityhmia (unawareness of your emotions) and abnormalities in brain regions related to higher-order representation.
While the HOT theories seem to suggest that you need higher-order representation of something to be conscious of a thing, I would say that you need higher-order representation of something in order to be conscious of having been conscious of something. (Whether being conscious of something without being conscious of being conscious of it can count as being conscious of it, is of course an interesting philosophical question.)
Bridging Motor and Cognitive Control: It’s About Time! Harrison Ritz, Romy Frömer, Amitai Shenhav. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, in press.
I have suggested that control of thought and control of behavior operate on similar principles; this paper argues the same.
From Knowing to Remembering: The Semantic–Episodic Distinction. Louis Renoult, Muireann Irish, Morris Moscovitch, and Michael D. Rugg. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, in press.
In Book summary: Unlocking the Emotional Brain and Building up to an Internal Family Systems model, I referenced models under which a particular event in a person’s life gives rise to a generalized belief schema, and situations which re-activate that belief schema may also partially re-activate recollection of the original event, and vice versa; if something reminds you of a situation you experienced as a child, you may also to some extent reason in the kinds of terms that you did when you were a child and in that situation. This paper discusses connections between episodic memories (e.g., “I remember reading 1984 in Hyde Park yesterday”) and semantic memories (e.g. “1984 was written by George Orwell”), and how activation of one may activate another.
Hypothesis: basically anyone can attract a cult following online, provided that they
1) are a decent writer or speaker
2) are writing/speaking about something which may or may not be particularly original, but does provide at least some value to people who haven’t heard of this kind of stuff before
3) devote a substantial part of their message into confidently talking about how their version of things is the true and correct one, and how everyone who says otherwise is deluded/lying/clueless
There’s a lot of demand for the experience of feeling like you know something unique that sets you apart from all the mundane, unwashed masses.
(This isn’t necessarily a bad thing. As long as the content that’s being peddled is something reasonable, then these people’s followers may get a lot of genuine value from being so enthusiastic about it. Being really enthusiastic almost by definition means that you are going to invest a lot more into internalizing and using the thing, than does someone who goes “meh, that’s old hat” and then never actually does anything with the thing. A lot depends on how sensible the content is—this method probably works equally well with content that’s a net harm to buy into, as it does with content that’s a net good. But of course, the fact that it works basically regardless of what the content is, means that a lot of the content in question will be bad.)
Other common marketing advice that fits into this:
Set up a “bad guy” that you’re against
If you’re in a crowded category, either
Create a new category (e.g. rationality)
Set yourself up as an alternative to number in a category (Pepsi)
Become number one in the category (Jetblue?)
It’s better to provide value that takes away a pain (painkillers) than that adds something that was missing (vitamins)
I’d really like to read more about what you think of this. Another closely related feature they need is:
Content well formatted (The Sequences are a great example of this,The Codex). Of course, blogs are also a good basic idea which allows incremental reading.
Length of the posts? Maybe? I think there may be a case to be made for length helping to generate that cult following since it’s directly related to the amount of time invested by people reading. There are many examples where posts could be summarized by a few paragraphs but instead they go long! (But of course there’s a reason they do so).
Some time back, Julia Wise published the results of a survey asking parents what they had expected parenthood to be like and to what extent their experience matched those expectations. I found those results really interesting and have often referred to them in conversation, and they were also useful to me when I was thinking about whether I wanted to have children myself.
However, that survey was based on only 12 people’s responses, so I thought it would be valuable to get more data. So I’m replicating Julia’s survey, with a few optional quantitative questions added. If you have children, you’re welcome to answer here: https://forms.gle/uETxvX45u3ebDECy5
I’ll publish the results at some point when it looks like there won’t be many more responses.
The link is a link to a facebook webpage telling my that I am about to leave facebook. Is that intentional?
Oh oops, it wasn’t. Fixed, thanks for pointing it out.
So I was doing insight meditation and noticing inconsistencies between my experience and my mental models of what things in my experience meant (stuff like “this feeling means that I’m actively and consciously spending effort… but wait, I don’t really feel like it’s under my control, so that can’t be right”), and feeling like parts of my brain were getting confused as a result...
And then I noticed that if I thought of a cognitive science/psychology-influenced theory of what was going on instead, those confused parts of my mind seemed to grab onto it, and maybe replace their previous models with that one.
Which raised the obvious question of, wait, am I just replacing one set of flawed assumptions with another?
But that would explain the thing which Scott writes about in https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/04/19/gupta-on-enlightenment/ , where e.g. a Muslim who gets enlightened will adopt an Islamic framework to explain it and experience it as a deep truth. Insight meditation involves making the mind confused about what’s going on, and when a mind gets confused, it will grab onto the first coherent explanation it finds.
But if you’re aware of that, and don’t mistake your new set of assumptions for a universal truth, then you can keep investigating your mind and uncovering new inconsistencies in your models, successively tearing each one apart in order to replace them with ever-more accurate ones.
What could plausibly take us from now to AGI within 10 years?
A friend shared the following question on Facebook:
I replied with some of my thoughts as follows:
Here’s my brief pitch, starting with your point about simulation:
The strength and flexibility of LLMs probably opens up several more routes toward cognitive completeness and what we’d consider impressive creativity.
LLMs can use chain-of-thought sequential processing to do a type of mental simulation. If they are prompted to, or if they “prompt themselves” in a chain of thought system, they can access a rich world model to simulate how different actions are likely to play out. They have to put everything in language, although visual and other modalities can be added either through things like the whiteboard of thought, or by using CoT training directly on those modalities in multimodal foundation models. But language already summarizes a good deal of world models across many modalities, so those improvements may not be necessary.
The primary change that will make LLMs more “creative” in your friends’ sense is letting them think longer and using strategy and training to organize that thinking. There are two cognitive capacities needed to do this. There is no barrier to progress in either direction; they just haven’t received much attention yet.
LLMs don’t have any episodic memory, “snapshot” memory for important experiences. And They’re severely lacking executive functioning, the capacity to keep ourselves on-track and strategically direct our cognition. A human with those impairments would be very little use for complex tasks, let alone doing novel work we’d consider deeply creative.
Both of those things seem actually pretty easy to add. Vector-based databases aren’t quite good enough to be very useful, but they will be improved. One route is a straightforward, computationally-efficient improvement based on human brain function that I won’t mention even though work is probably underway on it somewhere. And there are probably other equally good routes.
The chain-of-thought training applied to o1, r1, Marco o1, and QwQ (and probably soon a whole bunch more) improves organization of chains of thought, adding some amount of executive function. Scaffolding in prompts for things like “where are you in the task? Is this making progress toward the goal? Should we try a different approach?” etc is also possible. This will work better when combined with episodic memory; a human without it couldn’t organize their progress through a complex task—but LLMs now have large context windows that are like better-than-human working memory systems, so better episodic memory might not even be necessary for dramatic improvements.
This is spelled out a little more in Capabilities and alignment of LLM cognitive architectures, although that isn’t as clear or compelling as I’d like. It looks to me like progress is happening apace on that direction.
That’s just one route to “Real AGI” from LLMs/foundation models. There are probably others that are just as easy. Foundation models can now do almost everything humans can in the short term. Making their cognition cumulative like ours seems like more of an unblocking and using their capacities more strategically and effectively, rather than adding any real new cognitive abilities.
Continuous learning, through better episodic memory and/or fine-tuning for facts/skills judged as useful is another low-hanging fruit.
Hoping that we’re more than a decade from transformative AGI now seems wildly optimistic to me. There could be dramatic roadblocks I haven’t foreseen, but most of those would just push it past three years. It could take more than a decade, but banking on that leaves us unprepared for the very short timelines that now seem fairly likely.
While the short timelines are scary, there are also large advantages to this route to AGI, including a relatively slow takeoff and the way that LLMs are almost an oracle AI trained largely to follow instructions. But that’s another story.
That’s a bit more than I meant to write; I’ve been trying to refine an intuitive explanation of why we may be spitting distance from real, transformative AGI, and that served as a useful prompt.
Self-driving cars seem like a useful reference point. Back when cars got unexpectedly good performance at the 2005 and 2007 DARPA grand challenges, there was a lot of hype about how self-driving cars were just around the corner now that they had demonstrated having the basic capability. 17 years later, we’re only at this point (Wikipedia):
And self-driving capability should be vastly easier than general intelligence. Like self-driving, transformative AI also requires reliable worst-case performance rather than just good average-case performance, and there’s usually a surprising amount of detail involved that you need to sort out before you get to that point.
I admit, I’d probably call self-driving cars at this point a solved or nearly-solved problem by Waymo, and the big reason why self-driving cars only now are taking off is basically because of regulatory and liability issues, and I consider a lot of the self-driving car slowdown as evidence that regulation can work to slow down a technology substantially.
(Hmm I was expecting that this would get more upvotes. Too obvious? Not obvious enough?)
It seems to me that o1 and deepseek already do a bunch of the “mental simulation” kind of reasoning, and even previous LLMs did so a good amount if you prompted them to think in chain-of-thoughts, so the core point fell a bit flat for me.
Thanks, that’s helpful. My impression from o1 is that it does something that could be called mental simulation for domains like math where the “simulation” can in fact be represented with just writing (or equations more specifically). But I think that writing is only an efficient format for mental simulation for a very small number of domains.
A morning habit I’ve had for several weeks now is to put some songs on, then spend 5-10 minutes letting the music move my body as it wishes. (Typically this turns into some form of dancing.)
It’s a pretty effective way to get my energy / mood levels up quickly, can recommend.
It’s also easy to effectively timebox it if you’re busy, “I will dance for exactly two songs” serves as its own timer and is often all I have the energy for before I’ve had breakfast. (Today Spotify randomized Nightwish’s Moondance as the third song and boy I did NOT have the blood sugar for that, it sucked me in effectively enough that I did the first 30 seconds but then quickly stopped it after the pace slowed down and it momentarily released its grip on me.)
Janina Fisher’s book “Healing the Fragmented Selves of Trauma Survivors” has an interesting take on Internal Family Systems. She conceptualizes trauma-related parts (subagents) as being primarily associated with the defensive systems of Fight/Flight/Freeze/Submit/Attach.
Here’s how she briefly characterizes the various systems and related behaviors:
Fight: Vigilance. Angry, judgmental, mistrustful, self-destructive, controlling, suicidal, needs to control.
Flight: Escape. Distancer, ambivalent, cannot commit, addictive behavior or being disorganized.
Freeze: Fear. Frozen, terrified, wary, phobic of being seen, agoraphobic, reports panic attacks.
Submit: Shame. Depressed, ashamed, filled with self-hatred, passive, “good girl,” caretaker, self-sacrificing.
Attach: Needy. Desperate, craves rescue & connection, sweet, innocent, wants someone to depend on.
Here’s how she describes a child-like part connected to an “attach” system coming to existence:
Here are how she relates various trauma symptoms to these systems:
And here’s how she describes something that in traditional IFS terms would be described as polarized parts:
Huh. I woke up feeling like meditation has caused me to no longer have any painful or traumatic memories: or rather all the same memories are still around, but my mind no longer flinches away from them if something happens to make me recall them.
Currently trying to poke around my mind to see whether I could find any memory that would feel strongly aversive, but at most I can find ones that feel a little bit unpleasant.
Obviously can’t yet tell whether some will return to being aversive. But given that this seems to be a result of giving my mind the chance to repeatedly observe that flinching away from things is by itself the thing that makes the things unpleasant, I wouldn’t be too surprised if I’d managed to successfully condition it to stop doing that for the memories. Though I would expect there to be setbacks, the next time that something particularly painful happened or was just generally feeling bad.
This seems similar to my experiences.