How many of me would there have to be for that to work?
Only one; I meant ‘you’ in that line to refer to Vlad. It does raise the question “how many people disagree before I side with them instead of Eliezer/Roko/Vlad”. And the answer to that is … complicated. Each person’s rationality, modified by how much it was applied in this particular case, is the weight I give to their evidence; then the full calculation of evidence for and against should bring my prior to within epsilon but preferably below my original prior for me to decide the idea is safe.
Also, why is rationalism the risk factor for this basilisk?
Rationalism is the ability to think well and this is a dangerous idea. If it were a dangerous bacterium then immune system would be the risk factor.
Rationalism is the ability to think well and this is a dangerous idea. If it were a dangerous bacterium then immune system would be the risk factor.
Generally, if your immune system is fighting something, you’re already sick. Most pathogens are benign or don’t have the keys to your locks. This might be a similar situation- the idea is only troubling if your lock fits it- and it seems like then there would be rational methods to erode that fear (like the immune system mobs an infection).
The analogy definitely breaks down, doesn’t it? What I had in mind was Eliezer, Roko, and Vlad saying “I got sick from this infection” and you saying “I did not get sick from this infection”—I would look at how strong each person’s immune system is.
So if Eliezer, Roko, and Vlad all had weak immune systems and yours was quite robust, I would conclude that the bacterium in question is not particularly virulent. But if three robust immune systems all fell sick, and one robust immune system did not, I would be forced to decide between some hypotheses:
the first three are actually weak immune systems
the fourth was not properly exposed to the bacterium
the fourth has a condition that makes it immune
the bacterium is not virulent, the first three got unlucky
On the evidence I have, the middle two seem more likely than the first and last hypotheses.
I agree- my money is on #3 (but I’m not sure whether I would structure is as “fourth is immune” or “first three are vulnerable”- both are correct, but which is more natural word to use depends on the demographic response).
Only one; I meant ‘you’ in that line to refer to Vlad. It does raise the question “how many people disagree before I side with them instead of Eliezer/Roko/Vlad”. And the answer to that is … complicated. Each person’s rationality, modified by how much it was applied in this particular case, is the weight I give to their evidence; then the full calculation of evidence for and against should bring my prior to within epsilon but preferably below my original prior for me to decide the idea is safe.
Rationalism is the ability to think well and this is a dangerous idea. If it were a dangerous bacterium then immune system would be the risk factor.
Generally, if your immune system is fighting something, you’re already sick. Most pathogens are benign or don’t have the keys to your locks. This might be a similar situation- the idea is only troubling if your lock fits it- and it seems like then there would be rational methods to erode that fear (like the immune system mobs an infection).
The analogy definitely breaks down, doesn’t it? What I had in mind was Eliezer, Roko, and Vlad saying “I got sick from this infection” and you saying “I did not get sick from this infection”—I would look at how strong each person’s immune system is.
So if Eliezer, Roko, and Vlad all had weak immune systems and yours was quite robust, I would conclude that the bacterium in question is not particularly virulent. But if three robust immune systems all fell sick, and one robust immune system did not, I would be forced to decide between some hypotheses:
the first three are actually weak immune systems
the fourth was not properly exposed to the bacterium
the fourth has a condition that makes it immune
the bacterium is not virulent, the first three got unlucky
On the evidence I have, the middle two seem more likely than the first and last hypotheses.
I agree- my money is on #3 (but I’m not sure whether I would structure is as “fourth is immune” or “first three are vulnerable”- both are correct, but which is more natural word to use depends on the demographic response).
Er, are you describing rationalism (I note you say that and not “rationality”) as susceptible to autoimmune disorders? More so than in this post?