The analogy definitely breaks down, doesn’t it? What I had in mind was Eliezer, Roko, and Vlad saying “I got sick from this infection” and you saying “I did not get sick from this infection”—I would look at how strong each person’s immune system is.
So if Eliezer, Roko, and Vlad all had weak immune systems and yours was quite robust, I would conclude that the bacterium in question is not particularly virulent. But if three robust immune systems all fell sick, and one robust immune system did not, I would be forced to decide between some hypotheses:
the first three are actually weak immune systems
the fourth was not properly exposed to the bacterium
the fourth has a condition that makes it immune
the bacterium is not virulent, the first three got unlucky
On the evidence I have, the middle two seem more likely than the first and last hypotheses.
I agree- my money is on #3 (but I’m not sure whether I would structure is as “fourth is immune” or “first three are vulnerable”- both are correct, but which is more natural word to use depends on the demographic response).
The analogy definitely breaks down, doesn’t it? What I had in mind was Eliezer, Roko, and Vlad saying “I got sick from this infection” and you saying “I did not get sick from this infection”—I would look at how strong each person’s immune system is.
So if Eliezer, Roko, and Vlad all had weak immune systems and yours was quite robust, I would conclude that the bacterium in question is not particularly virulent. But if three robust immune systems all fell sick, and one robust immune system did not, I would be forced to decide between some hypotheses:
the first three are actually weak immune systems
the fourth was not properly exposed to the bacterium
the fourth has a condition that makes it immune
the bacterium is not virulent, the first three got unlucky
On the evidence I have, the middle two seem more likely than the first and last hypotheses.
I agree- my money is on #3 (but I’m not sure whether I would structure is as “fourth is immune” or “first three are vulnerable”- both are correct, but which is more natural word to use depends on the demographic response).