Presentation 1: Exploring Microfoundations in Economic Theory by Giovanni Dosi
Key Discussion Points:
1. The main subject of the talk is Professor Dosi’s forthcoming book, “The Foundations of Complex Evolving Economies”, which critically explores the microfoundations of economic theory. 2. Discussion centered around how agent-based models can illuminate analysis of technology, innovation, and macroeconomic policy. 3. Patterns of development, Kuznetsian patterns of long-term growth, and the Kaldorian stylized facts were analyzed. 4. Professor Dosi employed a unique metaphor—cake-making as an example of input-output functions to highlight the limitations of unconstrained functions. 5. The talk explored organizational behaviors, heuristics, and routines in firms’ behaviors, along with firms’ heterogeneity. 6. The talk extended Professor David Soskice’s discussion on comparative management practices, focusing on differences between British and American managers.
Questions and Responses:
1. The merits of Agent-based modeling (ABM) over Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models were discussed, specifically in handling innovation. 2. A query about the predictive ability of ABM for complex phenomena, like whale movement, remained unanswered. 3. Professor Dosi shared his perspective on technology: while it has significantly improved, it has also ushered in severe environmental challenges.
Presentation 2: Heterogeneity, Interaction and Macroeconomic Implications
Key Discussion Points:
1. Methodological considerations for building ABMs were discussed. 2. Interpretative elements necessary for understanding ABMs were highlighted. 3. The model, according to Professor Dosi, rejects parameter scanning and emphasizes qualitative fact generation. 4. It was clarified that the model is not calibrated against DSGE. 5. Professor Dosi reviewed a series of K+S models, specifically citing Dosi et al. 2022. 6. The discussion delved into how technology is defined, specifically around innovation and efficiency. 7. The competitiveness of firms was identified as a critical factor in determining their market share in each round.
Presentation 3: Discussion
Key Discussion Points:
1. The challenge of reconciling stylized facts with microeconomic theories was discussed. 2. The presentation highlighted problems faced by economic models, with specific examples from Minnesota and Cambridge. 3. Essential guiding features for Macro Agent-based Models (MABMs) were discussed, such as coordination, financial instability, and heterogeneity.
Final Questions and Responses:
1. Professor Dosi acknowledged that MABMs are consistent with the principle of “more is different”, but clarified that no new structure or framework emerges from the model. 2. The role of qualitative calibration in the model was discussed. 3. The transition from economic theory to practical policy was discussed, emphasizing the government’s role in implementing suggestions from economic research.
Side Notes:
1. The nature of technology was discussed, including questions about whether the technological paradigm has shifted and how to measure technological improvements.
Notes from the Bank of England Talk by Giovanni Dosi on Agent-based Modeling for Macroeconomics
Presentation 1: Exploring Microfoundations in Economic Theory by Giovanni Dosi
Key Discussion Points:
1. The main subject of the talk is Professor Dosi’s forthcoming book, “The Foundations of Complex Evolving Economies”, which critically explores the microfoundations of economic theory.
2. Discussion centered around how agent-based models can illuminate analysis of technology, innovation, and macroeconomic policy.
3. Patterns of development, Kuznetsian patterns of long-term growth, and the Kaldorian stylized facts were analyzed.
4. Professor Dosi employed a unique metaphor—cake-making as an example of input-output functions to highlight the limitations of unconstrained functions.
5. The talk explored organizational behaviors, heuristics, and routines in firms’ behaviors, along with firms’ heterogeneity.
6. The talk extended Professor David Soskice’s discussion on comparative management practices, focusing on differences between British and American managers.
Questions and Responses:
1. The merits of Agent-based modeling (ABM) over Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models were discussed, specifically in handling innovation.
2. A query about the predictive ability of ABM for complex phenomena, like whale movement, remained unanswered.
3. Professor Dosi shared his perspective on technology: while it has significantly improved, it has also ushered in severe environmental challenges.
Presentation 2: Heterogeneity, Interaction and Macroeconomic Implications
Key Discussion Points:
1. Methodological considerations for building ABMs were discussed.
2. Interpretative elements necessary for understanding ABMs were highlighted.
3. The model, according to Professor Dosi, rejects parameter scanning and emphasizes qualitative fact generation.
4. It was clarified that the model is not calibrated against DSGE.
5. Professor Dosi reviewed a series of K+S models, specifically citing Dosi et al. 2022.
6. The discussion delved into how technology is defined, specifically around innovation and efficiency.
7. The competitiveness of firms was identified as a critical factor in determining their market share in each round.
Presentation 3: Discussion
Key Discussion Points:
1. The challenge of reconciling stylized facts with microeconomic theories was discussed.
2. The presentation highlighted problems faced by economic models, with specific examples from Minnesota and Cambridge.
3. Essential guiding features for Macro Agent-based Models (MABMs) were discussed, such as coordination, financial instability, and heterogeneity.
Final Questions and Responses:
1. Professor Dosi acknowledged that MABMs are consistent with the principle of “more is different”, but clarified that no new structure or framework emerges from the model.
2. The role of qualitative calibration in the model was discussed.
3. The transition from economic theory to practical policy was discussed, emphasizing the government’s role in implementing suggestions from economic research.
Side Notes:
1. The nature of technology was discussed, including questions about whether the technological paradigm has shifted and how to measure technological improvements.