If it’s true that you chose the numbers because we have ten fingers (and because of nothing else), and I can verify that, then I feel I should behave as if the event is random with probability 0.3, even if it was the 10-th digit of pi, not 10^10-th.
I never had anything against logical uncertainty :)
The point, though, is that this setup—where I can verify Omega’s honest attempt at randomness—does not produce the paradoxes. In particular, it does not allow someone to pump money out of me. And so it seems to me that I can and should “keep paying up in Counterfactual Mugging even when the logical coinflip looks as obvious as 2+2=4.”
If it’s true that you chose the numbers because we have ten fingers (and because of nothing else), and I can verify that, then I feel I should behave as if the event is random with probability 0.3, even if it was the 10-th digit of pi, not 10^10-th.
Yep—welcome to logical uncertainty!
I never had anything against logical uncertainty :)
The point, though, is that this setup—where I can verify Omega’s honest attempt at randomness—does not produce the paradoxes. In particular, it does not allow someone to pump money out of me. And so it seems to me that I can and should “keep paying up in Counterfactual Mugging even when the logical coinflip looks as obvious as 2+2=4.”