Some assorted polymarket and metaculus forecasts on the subject:
Bird flu pandemic before August 2025?
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?
Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?
Will there be another pandemic in the USA that results in mask mandates on public transit by the end of 2030?
They are not exactly low.
Some assorted polymarket and metaculus forecasts on the subject:
Bird flu pandemic before August 2025?
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?
Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?
Will there be another pandemic in the USA that results in mask mandates on public transit by the end of 2030?
They are not exactly low.