But I don’t think a 10^-8 prior is really that low for such a scenario. You’ve a lot of “and” in it, and each “and” does a multiplication of the probabilities...
Well, maybe… I suppose it’s “difficult to estimate”. My intuition is that there will be some “strange possibilities” which make the probability of winning the lottery much higher. But maybe those particular “strange possibilities” have a prior probability significantly lower than 10^-8, since we have to pick them out of the space of possible “strange possibilities”...
Well, maybe… I suppose it’s “difficult to estimate”. My intuition is that there will be some “strange possibilities” which make the probability of winning the lottery much higher. But maybe those particular “strange possibilities” have a prior probability significantly lower than 10^-8, since we have to pick them out of the space of possible “strange possibilities”...