I don’t think abramdemski was referring to a “generic” simulation, as if you were running the laws of physics in a computer, and it happens that consciousness arose in the world (like replicators arise in a Game of Life). Or anything like that.
I said “holodeck”, if I got the concept well, then in the real world there is a player, and only one, who is running through a simulation, where he is a PC, while all others are non-self-aware NPC. And in this scenario, the player doesn’t want it to be clear that he is inside a simulation (in most CRPG there is no in-game evidence that it is just a game, only very few do), but on the other hand, he does want unusual things to happen to him—like winning at the lottery. Even if the sheer luck of the PC is suspicious—like it is in most games and movies.
So the hypothesis “I am in fact a player who is controlling the PC in a game, in which the scenario is that the PC gains the lottery and then can have fun with the money” does make sense. And indeed, if you had a >10^-8 chance of it being true, after winning the lottery, you should have a decent chance of it being true.
But I don’t think a 10^-8 prior is really that low for such a scenario. You’ve a lot of “and” in it, and each “and” does a multiplication of the probabilities...
But I don’t think a 10^-8 prior is really that low for such a scenario. You’ve a lot of “and” in it, and each “and” does a multiplication of the probabilities...
Well, maybe… I suppose it’s “difficult to estimate”. My intuition is that there will be some “strange possibilities” which make the probability of winning the lottery much higher. But maybe those particular “strange possibilities” have a prior probability significantly lower than 10^-8, since we have to pick them out of the space of possible “strange possibilities”...
I don’t think abramdemski was referring to a “generic” simulation, as if you were running the laws of physics in a computer, and it happens that consciousness arose in the world (like replicators arise in a Game of Life). Or anything like that.
I said “holodeck”, if I got the concept well, then in the real world there is a player, and only one, who is running through a simulation, where he is a PC, while all others are non-self-aware NPC. And in this scenario, the player doesn’t want it to be clear that he is inside a simulation (in most CRPG there is no in-game evidence that it is just a game, only very few do), but on the other hand, he does want unusual things to happen to him—like winning at the lottery. Even if the sheer luck of the PC is suspicious—like it is in most games and movies.
So the hypothesis “I am in fact a player who is controlling the PC in a game, in which the scenario is that the PC gains the lottery and then can have fun with the money” does make sense. And indeed, if you had a >10^-8 chance of it being true, after winning the lottery, you should have a decent chance of it being true.
But I don’t think a 10^-8 prior is really that low for such a scenario. You’ve a lot of “and” in it, and each “and” does a multiplication of the probabilities...
Well, maybe… I suppose it’s “difficult to estimate”. My intuition is that there will be some “strange possibilities” which make the probability of winning the lottery much higher. But maybe those particular “strange possibilities” have a prior probability significantly lower than 10^-8, since we have to pick them out of the space of possible “strange possibilities”...