So Solar starts with a 28-day cycle that looks vaguely like Ocean+Earth’s shape. But it starts getting little distortions, and then some really big ones around day 120-220. Then it’s fairly tame (looks like original!) except for a big spike around day 265, and a really big spike around day 367 which has just died down. Seems like the thing to do is try to model the “regular” variation, subtract it out, and analyze the remains. I will try averaging the normalish looking cycles.
Natural cycle peaks appear to be on days [20, 48, 76, 104, 132, 160, 188, 216, 244, 272, 300, 328, 356, 384]; T=384 is a natural solar peak. Normalish-between-peaks subtracted out… leaves, ah ha, a very clear 9-day cyclic thing. To investigate later, but that’s why the Solar-Lunar looked 9-dayish.
I’ve got a very nice, but not 100% precise, fit to Solar with a 28-day sine plus a 9-day sine. Barring its 4 jumps of course. I don’t see any particular reason to guess it will be away-from-normal on T=384, and the 28+9 predicts Solar=44 then, with a +-5 (closer to +-4 or 3).
So we have a choice between: - Ocean+Earth: 74-80, probably 77, guaranteed no demon - Solar+Doom: [39,49]+[28,33] + maybe Solar spike + maybe Doom spike + maaaaybe Doom dip is probably 74, tiny chance of a demon, small chance of ritual failure, small chance of big success
The conservative choice is to just go with Ocean+Earth. But there is another option, of hoping for a Solar spike. These have been increasing in magnitude and the last one provided 20-25 extra mana. If Morgan can prepare the ritual and continue to monitor flows, he could check for whether Solar is significantly above baseline (we’d give him the decision procedure) and then either go ahead with the ritual or cancel.
I think there is a low chance of a spike, without further insights. Lower than 10%. Higher than 1, even 2%. So roughly 4+%, with a tiny helping of Doom spike, call it 5%. And even if there’s a spike, maybe it’s only 10-15 or 20-25 rather than something larger. Let’s say 0.75% chance of a large spike, 1.5% chance of a 20-25 spike, and 2.5% chance of a 10-15 spike.
My answer to Morgan is that he can have a guaranteed 74-80 mana, or a chance of 84-95, or a chance of 94-105, or a chance of (making this up) 104-130. I will ask at what chance he would rather each of the other alternatives, then convert that to elicited preference, multiply, add, compare, and give him either the Ocean+Earth combo or the Solar+Doom combo+procedure. If he “chooses” Solar+Doom and then balks at the procedure, I will relent and give him Ocean+Earth.
So Solar starts with a 28-day cycle that looks vaguely like Ocean+Earth’s shape. But it starts getting little distortions, and then some really big ones around day 120-220. Then it’s fairly tame (looks like original!) except for a big spike around day 265, and a really big spike around day 367 which has just died down. Seems like the thing to do is try to model the “regular” variation, subtract it out, and analyze the remains. I will try averaging the normalish looking cycles.
Natural cycle peaks appear to be on days [20, 48, 76, 104, 132, 160, 188, 216, 244, 272, 300, 328, 356, 384]; T=384 is a natural solar peak. Normalish-between-peaks subtracted out… leaves, ah ha, a very clear 9-day cyclic thing. To investigate later, but that’s why the Solar-Lunar looked 9-dayish.
I’ve got a very nice, but not 100% precise, fit to Solar with a 28-day sine plus a 9-day sine. Barring its 4 jumps of course. I don’t see any particular reason to guess it will be away-from-normal on T=384, and the 28+9 predicts Solar=44 then, with a +-5 (closer to +-4 or 3).
So we have a choice between:
- Ocean+Earth: 74-80, probably 77, guaranteed no demon
- Solar+Doom: [39,49]+[28,33] + maybe Solar spike + maybe Doom spike + maaaaybe Doom dip is probably 74, tiny chance of a demon, small chance of ritual failure, small chance of big success
The conservative choice is to just go with Ocean+Earth. But there is another option, of hoping for a Solar spike. These have been increasing in magnitude and the last one provided 20-25 extra mana. If Morgan can prepare the ritual and continue to monitor flows, he could check for whether Solar is significantly above baseline (we’d give him the decision procedure) and then either go ahead with the ritual or cancel.
I think there is a low chance of a spike, without further insights. Lower than 10%. Higher than 1, even 2%. So roughly 4+%, with a tiny helping of Doom spike, call it 5%. And even if there’s a spike, maybe it’s only 10-15 or 20-25 rather than something larger. Let’s say 0.75% chance of a large spike, 1.5% chance of a 20-25 spike, and 2.5% chance of a 10-15 spike.
My answer to Morgan is that he can have a guaranteed 74-80 mana, or a chance of 84-95, or a chance of 94-105, or a chance of (making this up) 104-130. I will ask at what chance he would rather each of the other alternatives, then convert that to elicited preference, multiply, add, compare, and give him either the Ocean+Earth combo or the Solar+Doom combo+procedure. If he “chooses” Solar+Doom and then balks at the procedure, I will relent and give him Ocean+Earth.