We notice there are no obviously immortal world leaders on Earth (but see vi21maobk9vp’s comment below). If we therefore limit the possible avatars that our simulator God is using on Earth to the major monotheistic religions of Christianity, Islam, and Judaism, and consider them all equiprobable; plus a 25% chance that this God is jumping from one avatar to another, or chose to reveal Himself via Jesus but then Paul screwed everything up, or some other minority position; then p(chr0|ego, ent, sim, Earth) = .25.
I find it hard to believe you mean all this remotely seriously. For starters, you used the current game market in order to calculate the percentage of p(ego|ent, sim) -- and yet you didn’t bother using the same tactic to estimate p(chr0|ego, ent, sim, Earth) ?
How many games put you in the position of a military conqueror versus the number of games that put you in a position of a religious leader?
How many games put you in the position of even a normal detective or a normal crook versus the ones that put you in the position of a religious leader?
By your own argument, people like Alexander the Great, or Napoleon, or Genghis Khan, or even Hitler are much more likely to have been simulator-avatars than people like Jesus. (Mohammed might work as being both a religious and a military leader)
Then mythological (not religious) heroes.
After them, would come people like Al Kapone or Billy the Kid.
Then, given first-person shooters, would come ordinary soldiers.
Religious leaders, by your own argument, would be way down the list for a likely simulator-avatar. Especially mostly pacifist religious leaders, like Jesus or Buddha. (Mohammed or Krishna would be more interesting cases)
So I’d say p(chr0|ego, ent, sim, Earth) = 0.001 -- one in a thousandth chance, even given the assumption of an ego-driven entertainment simulation being what we’re in.
By your own argument, people like Alexander the Great, or Napoleon, or Genghis Khan, or even Hitler are much more likely to have been simulator-avatars than people like Jesus.
This is a good counter-argument. I expect from my experience observing humans that players are more likely to play war leaders. However, we don’t see immortal war-leaders. So, if our God wants a persistent identity throughout the game, we’re limited in what that identity could be. This observation is stronger than our priors about what roles God would want to play.
Many (probably most) games with character avatars do have defeat/death conditions, so I don’t see how this affects the probability in question.
So, if our God wants a persistent identity throughout the game
You’ve not listed this criterion in your sequence of conditional probabilities. It ought be something P(single persistent identity|ego, ent, sim, Earth) - and then we could debate P(chr0|single persistent identity, ego, ent, sim, Earth)
Also Jesus Christ wasn’t immortal either, the fact he died is part of the core points of Christianity.
I find it hard to believe you mean all this remotely seriously. For starters, you used the current game market in order to calculate the percentage of p(ego|ent, sim) -- and yet you didn’t bother using the same tactic to estimate p(chr0|ego, ent, sim, Earth) ?
How many games put you in the position of a military conqueror versus the number of games that put you in a position of a religious leader? How many games put you in the position of even a normal detective or a normal crook versus the ones that put you in the position of a religious leader?
By your own argument, people like Alexander the Great, or Napoleon, or Genghis Khan, or even Hitler are much more likely to have been simulator-avatars than people like Jesus. (Mohammed might work as being both a religious and a military leader) Then mythological (not religious) heroes. After them, would come people like Al Kapone or Billy the Kid. Then, given first-person shooters, would come ordinary soldiers. Religious leaders, by your own argument, would be way down the list for a likely simulator-avatar. Especially mostly pacifist religious leaders, like Jesus or Buddha. (Mohammed or Krishna would be more interesting cases)
So I’d say p(chr0|ego, ent, sim, Earth) = 0.001 -- one in a thousandth chance, even given the assumption of an ego-driven entertainment simulation being what we’re in.
This is a good counter-argument. I expect from my experience observing humans that players are more likely to play war leaders. However, we don’t see immortal war-leaders. So, if our God wants a persistent identity throughout the game, we’re limited in what that identity could be. This observation is stronger than our priors about what roles God would want to play.
Or they’re playing Nethack.
Many (probably most) games with character avatars do have defeat/death conditions, so I don’t see how this affects the probability in question.
You’ve not listed this criterion in your sequence of conditional probabilities. It ought be something P(single persistent identity|ego, ent, sim, Earth) - and then we could debate P(chr0|single persistent identity, ego, ent, sim, Earth)
Also Jesus Christ wasn’t immortal either, the fact he died is part of the core points of Christianity.
″… I got better”