If months of debate with superforecasters didn’t accomplish much, that’s really disheartening
I participated in Tetlock’s tournament. Most people devoted a couple of hours to this particular topic, spread out over months.
A significant fraction of the disagreement was about whether AI would be transformative this century. I made a bit of progress on this, but didn’t get enough feedback to do much. AFAICT, many superforecasters know that reports of AI progress were mostly hype in prior decades, and are assuming that is continuing unless they see strong evidence to the contrary. They’re typically not willing to spend much more than an hour looking for such evidence.
I participated in Tetlock’s tournament. Most people devoted a couple of hours to this particular topic, spread out over months.
A significant fraction of the disagreement was about whether AI would be transformative this century. I made a bit of progress on this, but didn’t get enough feedback to do much. AFAICT, many superforecasters know that reports of AI progress were mostly hype in prior decades, and are assuming that is continuing unless they see strong evidence to the contrary. They’re typically not willing to spend much more than an hour looking for such evidence.