I do not think that is happening now for MIRI, and I hope not for others either. I strongly agree with Rob that there is a strong social disincentive to extreme doom estimates.
I know from experience that a sufficiently strong social disincentive can actually increase people’s tendency to groupthink. Some groups define themselves largely by the hate they get from the outgroup !
I don’t think that it’s the case for MIRI, and I don’t expect them to fall for this trap. But I hope they’re keeping this kind of dynamic in mind and checking from time to time if their position isn’t made more rigid by the kind of undocumented criticism they often get.
I know from experience that a sufficiently strong social disincentive can actually increase people’s tendency to groupthink. Some groups define themselves largely by the hate they get from the outgroup !
I don’t think that it’s the case for MIRI, and I don’t expect them to fall for this trap. But I hope they’re keeping this kind of dynamic in mind and checking from time to time if their position isn’t made more rigid by the kind of undocumented criticism they often get.