I’m very available to answer questions about my posts as soon as people actuall engage with the reasoning, so feel free to ask if you feel confused about anything.
If I am to highlight the core principle it would be: Thinking in terms of what happens in the probability experiment as a whole, to the best of your knowledge and from your perspective as a participant.
Suppose this experiment happened to you multiple times. If on iteration of the experiment something happens 2⁄3 of times then the probability of such event is 2⁄3. If something happens 100% of times then its probability is 1 and realizationof such event doesn’t give you you any evidence.
I’m very available to answer questions about my posts as soon as people actuall engage with the reasoning, so feel free to ask if you feel confused about anything.
If I am to highlight the core principle it would be: Thinking in terms of what happens in the probability experiment as a whole, to the best of your knowledge and from your perspective as a participant.
Suppose this experiment happened to you multiple times. If on iteration of the experiment something happens 2⁄3 of times then the probability of such event is 2⁄3. If something happens 100% of times then its probability is 1 and realizationof such event doesn’t give you you any evidence.
All the rest is commentary.