I think the point you make is a good one and should increase your credence in AGI/TAI/etc. by 2030. (Because if you take Ajeya’s distribution and add more uncertainty to it, the left tail gets thicker as well as the right). I’d love to see someone expand on Ajeya’s spreadsheet to include uncertainty in the flops/$ and 2020flops/flop trends.
Re FLOPS-per-dollar trends: My impression is that what we care about is the price of compute specifically for large AGI training runs, which is different from the price of compute in general. (which is what the dataset is presumably about). The price of compute in general may be cutting in half every 3.5 years but thanks to AI-specialized chips and better networking and switching to lower-res floating point operations we can probably do significantly better than that for price of AI-relevant compute. No? (Genuine question, I don’t know much about this topic.)
(For the next few years or so at least. Specialization won’t allow us to permanently have a faster trend, I think, but maybe for the next ten years...)
I think the point you make is a good one and should increase your credence in AGI/TAI/etc. by 2030. (Because if you take Ajeya’s distribution and add more uncertainty to it, the left tail gets thicker as well as the right). I’d love to see someone expand on Ajeya’s spreadsheet to include uncertainty in the flops/$ and 2020flops/flop trends.
Re FLOPS-per-dollar trends: My impression is that what we care about is the price of compute specifically for large AGI training runs, which is different from the price of compute in general. (which is what the dataset is presumably about). The price of compute in general may be cutting in half every 3.5 years but thanks to AI-specialized chips and better networking and switching to lower-res floating point operations we can probably do significantly better than that for price of AI-relevant compute. No? (Genuine question, I don’t know much about this topic.)
(For the next few years or so at least. Specialization won’t allow us to permanently have a faster trend, I think, but maybe for the next ten years...)