How hard the software will be is an issue to which currently nobody really knows the answer at the moment—AFAICS. We might all have our gut feelings—but I think nobody who is trying to be rational really knows—or even has a particularly low level of uncertainty just now.
Commodity hardware won’t get there until at least 2017 - and software lags behind hardware—so probably some time after that we will have affordable machines that can do a lot of what our brains can—but how much after that… my assessment is that nobody really knows.
How hard the software will be is an issue to which currently nobody really knows the answer at the moment—AFAICS. We might all have our gut feelings—but I think nobody who is trying to be rational really knows—or even has a particularly low level of uncertainty just now.
Commodity hardware won’t get there until at least 2017 - and software lags behind hardware—so probably some time after that we will have affordable machines that can do a lot of what our brains can—but how much after that… my assessment is that nobody really knows.