I would love to hear EY and DD discuss the technological singularity, and hear Dennett’s opinion on the humanist response to this issue.
From the video linked to below by TimTyler, Dennett says “the idea of the singularity is possible in principle, but the idea that it is in the near future is just not plausible. I disagree with Kurzweil… ”
It seems Dan has read RaymondK, but not EY. Thus a debate between Dennett and EY on the proposition: “P(smarter than human AI this century) > 5%” would be highly productive. I would expect one of EY and DD to have a major change of opinion as a result of such a debate, if it went on for long enough.
How hard the software will be is an issue to which currently nobody really knows the answer at the moment—AFAICS. We might all have our gut feelings—but I think nobody who is trying to be rational really knows—or even has a particularly low level of uncertainty just now.
Commodity hardware won’t get there until at least 2017 - and software lags behind hardware—so probably some time after that we will have affordable machines that can do a lot of what our brains can—but how much after that… my assessment is that nobody really knows.
Dan Dennett
I would love to hear EY and DD discuss the technological singularity, and hear Dennett’s opinion on the humanist response to this issue.
From the video linked to below by TimTyler, Dennett says “the idea of the singularity is possible in principle, but the idea that it is in the near future is just not plausible. I disagree with Kurzweil… ”
It seems Dan has read RaymondK, but not EY. Thus a debate between Dennett and EY on the proposition: “P(smarter than human AI this century) > 5%” would be highly productive. I would expect one of EY and DD to have a major change of opinion as a result of such a debate, if it went on for long enough.
FWIW, Dan has a video on that issue here. Possible, but far off, he says—citing software issues:
http://bigthink.com/ideas/daniel-dennett-discusses-the-problem-of-robotic-warfare
Thanks Tim. The relevant clip in that video is at 4:07
How hard the software will be is an issue to which currently nobody really knows the answer at the moment—AFAICS. We might all have our gut feelings—but I think nobody who is trying to be rational really knows—or even has a particularly low level of uncertainty just now.
Commodity hardware won’t get there until at least 2017 - and software lags behind hardware—so probably some time after that we will have affordable machines that can do a lot of what our brains can—but how much after that… my assessment is that nobody really knows.
I would love to see this.