If (2) and (3) were seriously considered, then I’d think you’d particularly want to avoid using only a single vaccine.
From a civilizational point of view, the largest issue isn’t the expectation of the direct outcome—it’s that there’s a small chance you may have a bad outcome with very little variance across the population.
I’d be much less concerned about doing (2) or (3) with twenty different vaccines than with one.
Black Swan considerations definitely apply here. Although as far as I know, we haven’t had a vaccine that outright killed the majority of the people taking it, it’s not impossible. Maybe it’s just rare enough that we haven’t established a meaningful base rate. You’d also want to be concerned about the possibility of interactions from giving multiple vaccines to one person.
It might make sense to do something like vaccinating populations in the hardest-hit areas first, trying new vaccines as they become available, prioritizing the safest and most effective vaccines as data emerges.
If (2) and (3) were seriously considered, then I’d think you’d particularly want to avoid using only a single vaccine. From a civilizational point of view, the largest issue isn’t the expectation of the direct outcome—it’s that there’s a small chance you may have a bad outcome with very little variance across the population.
I’d be much less concerned about doing (2) or (3) with twenty different vaccines than with one.
Black Swan considerations definitely apply here. Although as far as I know, we haven’t had a vaccine that outright killed the majority of the people taking it, it’s not impossible. Maybe it’s just rare enough that we haven’t established a meaningful base rate. You’d also want to be concerned about the possibility of interactions from giving multiple vaccines to one person.
It might make sense to do something like vaccinating populations in the hardest-hit areas first, trying new vaccines as they become available, prioritizing the safest and most effective vaccines as data emerges.