If you go through my LW comment history you’ll find that I’m in the camp of “The IFR is definitely >0.3%, and very plausibly >0.8%” and that I seem to care somewhat strongly about conveying this to others. :) Maybe you’ll find some of the discussions (or links therein) useful. (Unfortunately I can’t recommend any single resource that looks super convincing all on its own.)
Edit: By “very plausibly” I mean 25% likely rather than 50% likely. By “definitely” I mean 97% likely.
If you go through my LW comment history you’ll find that I’m in the camp of “The IFR is definitely >0.3%, and very plausibly >0.8%” and that I seem to care somewhat strongly about conveying this to others. :) Maybe you’ll find some of the discussions (or links therein) useful. (Unfortunately I can’t recommend any single resource that looks super convincing all on its own.)
Edit: By “very plausibly” I mean 25% likely rather than 50% likely. By “definitely” I mean 97% likely.