I’d love to see some hard evidence to resolve this dispute. I know various people in the 90′s did in fact predict the proliferation of small devices (Kurzweil, Strauss in Accelerando) but what did the average pundit think? What did the average tech industry employee think? Just because it should have been obvious doesn’t mean people actually thought it. IMO AGI will happen by 2030 and in retrospect people will say it should have been totally obvious in 2022.
I know your reasoning and I think it’s a plausible possibility. I’d be interested in how the disruption of AI into society looks like in your scenario.
Is it more like one or a few companies have AGIs but the rest of the world is still kinda normal or is it roughly like my story just 2x as fast?
I’d love to see some hard evidence to resolve this dispute. I know various people in the 90′s did in fact predict the proliferation of small devices (Kurzweil, Strauss in Accelerando) but what did the average pundit think? What did the average tech industry employee think? Just because it should have been obvious doesn’t mean people actually thought it. IMO AGI will happen by 2030 and in retrospect people will say it should have been totally obvious in 2022.
I know your reasoning and I think it’s a plausible possibility. I’d be interested in how the disruption of AI into society looks like in your scenario.
Is it more like one or a few companies have AGIs but the rest of the world is still kinda normal or is it roughly like my story just 2x as fast?