Here’s a visualization of the probability distribution implied by Joe’s credences (hope I did the math right):
I’m not going anywhere in particular with this, I just had fun making it & found it helpful so I thought I’d share. Also, I commissioned a web app so that I and anyone else can easily make things like this in the future:
Here’s what my distribution would be if I got it by multiplying all the numbers in the six stages. (My real distribution is somewhat more pessimistic, for reasons relating to the multiple-stage fallacy and which I laid out in my review.)
Here’s a visualization of the probability distribution implied by Joe’s credences (hope I did the math right):
I’m not going anywhere in particular with this, I just had fun making it & found it helpful so I thought I’d share. Also, I commissioned a web app so that I and anyone else can easily make things like this in the future:
Probability Mass App (daniel-kokotajlo.vercel.app)
(Thanks to Bhuvan Singla from Bountied Rationality for building it! Bug reports & feature requests welcome!)
Here’s what my distribution would be if I got it by multiplying all the numbers in the six stages. (My real distribution is somewhat more pessimistic, for reasons relating to the multiple-stage fallacy and which I laid out in my review.)