(btw, just thought to ask the people here who have thought about logging their predictions about the year 2018 around the end of December: How do you decide how much time you need before you settle on a prediction? I mean, if making a list on December, 31st is just a common point in time when to state your current state of knowledge, you have 364 days to come to it, but nobody takes so long.)
(btw, just thought to ask the people here who have thought about logging their predictions about the year 2018 around the end of December: How do you decide how much time you need before you settle on a prediction? I mean, if making a list on December, 31st is just a common point in time when to state your current state of knowledge, you have 364 days to come to it, but nobody takes so long.)
Superforecasers (book) suggests updating regularly. Like daily if you think your predictions change.
but surely a normal person who makes a list of about 50 items can’t update daily? they have stuff to do.
No. But they are probably not each as important as each other. And you can update without writing down the beliefs.
alright, then: at what earliest point do people start reading their predictions for another year?