After reading the first section and skimming the rest, my impression is that the document is a good overview, but does not present any detailed argument for why godlike AI would lead to human extinction. (Except for the “smarter species” analogy, which I would say doesn’t qualify.) So if I put on my sceptic hat, I can imagine reading the whole document in detail and somewhat-justifiably going away with “yeah, well, that sounds like a nice story, but I am not updating based on this”.
That seems fine to me, given that (as far as I am concerned) no detailed convincing arguments for AI X-risk exist. But at the moment, the summary of the document gave me the impression that maybe some such argument will appear. So I suggest updating the summary (or some other part of the doc) to make it explicit that no detailed arugment for AI X-risk will be given.
We have indeed gotten the feedback by multiple people that this part didn’t feel detailed enough (although we got this much more from very technical readers than from non-technical ones), and are working at improving the arguments.
After reading the first section and skimming the rest, my impression is that the document is a good overview, but does not present any detailed argument for why godlike AI would lead to human extinction. (Except for the “smarter species” analogy, which I would say doesn’t qualify.) So if I put on my sceptic hat, I can imagine reading the whole document in detail and somewhat-justifiably going away with “yeah, well, that sounds like a nice story, but I am not updating based on this”.
That seems fine to me, given that (as far as I am concerned) no detailed convincing arguments for AI X-risk exist. But at the moment, the summary of the document gave me the impression that maybe some such argument will appear. So I suggest updating the summary (or some other part of the doc) to make it explicit that no detailed arugment for AI X-risk will be given.
Thanks for the comment!
We have indeed gotten the feedback by multiple people that this part didn’t feel detailed enough (although we got this much more from very technical readers than from non-technical ones), and are working at improving the arguments.