I think this too. I think the chain is (mysterious Cochran-type cause)->(mysterious endocrine transport disorder)->weird polymorphous syndrome.
We don’t find out this sort of thing by expensively trying random things. Especially since the tests are terrible. We have to work it out in theory, and then make predictions where we don’t already know the answers, and then see whether they’re true. And then adjust our beliefs.
If I am sounding like a fanatic, I hope it is a Bayesian fanatic. Because that is what I am. And here I have a chance to test my beliefs on something real, and hard. And I haven’t a clue how to go about doing it.
If I am sounding like a fanatic, I hope it is a Bayesian fanatic. Because that is what I am. And here I have a chance to test my beliefs. And I haven’t a clue how to go about doing it.
The start is getting clearer about your own theory and what you actually believe.
If you claim to be a Bayesian fanatic, then actually reason in probabilities. Bring numbers. Be clear about how probably you consider various thesis that you made.
Then it’s worth noting that you being right means that a company might make a billion dollars of that knowledge. Especially if the solution is a special mix of hormones that could be patented to make a synthetic analog of the pig thyroid.
That means that if you can convince the right person that there a 5% chance that you are right they might fund a 100,000$ trial to find out.
Just be to clear, I’m not a person who’s defending the status quo of the way the medical system works.
In the last month I sat down with a person who had a cat allergy and did an NLP intervention to treat it. The next day he spent 30 minutes with a cat to test and didn’t have any allergy symptoms. I put down 2:1 chances of success beforehand in our shared prediction database.
Next month I’m at a workshops with 3-4 QS people a 3-4 academic scientists to talk about what
I think the chain is (mysterious Cochran-type cause)->(mysterious endocrine transport disorder)->weird polymorphous syndrome.
Let’s say it’s: “A person shy’s away from conflicts that arise when they speak up. As a result the fascia around the throat is tense. The tense fascia then presses on the thyroid. The thyroid doesn’t work properly because there’s pressure on it. Badly regulated hormones then do a mess elsewhere in the body.”
In my understanding the recent history of hormone supplementation generally isn’t good, because the body stops to produce less of the hormone if it’s supplemented.
However let’s spend more time investigating it here. Alexandra Carmichael who used to be one of the people at the head of the Quantified Self mothership build CureTogether as a database where people can report their results with different treatments.
It has 137 treatments for Fibromyalgia. The most sensible treatments seem to be getting more sleep, resting and and hot bathes. But there are also drugs listed.
The first place is Low-Dose Naltrexone (LDN). Provided one doesn’t count the painkiller mariuanah, the second place as far as drug go goes to Thyroid hormone. In total it’s the 16 place in the list counting all other approaches.
That site’s a wonderful idea! And it looks as though LDN has some effect on the immune system.
So if we can trust it, it looks like the two things that attack the problem rather than the symptoms are LDN (suppresses immune reaction) and T3 (overwhelms my hypothesised immune-caused endocrine resistance).
This is the problem I keep having. Every time I see something new, it supports me. Can anyone find something that I can’t explain?
And just for the avoidance of doubt, I think taking pure T3 is a terrible idea. But John Lowe thought it worked for him and for many of his patients, and I trust John Lowe much more than I trust myself.
I don’t think I’m conflating something in the context of this discussion. I think johnlawrenceaspden does focus on providing a plausible narrative instead of making falsifiable statements.
Is fair, but surely those predictions can be about bits of the medical literature that I haven’t seen yet, or haven’t understood properly, otherwise history would not be a rational endeavour.
I think this too. I think the chain is (mysterious Cochran-type cause)->(mysterious endocrine transport disorder)->weird polymorphous syndrome.
We don’t find out this sort of thing by expensively trying random things. Especially since the tests are terrible. We have to work it out in theory, and then make predictions where we don’t already know the answers, and then see whether they’re true. And then adjust our beliefs.
If I am sounding like a fanatic, I hope it is a Bayesian fanatic. Because that is what I am. And here I have a chance to test my beliefs on something real, and hard. And I haven’t a clue how to go about doing it.
The start is getting clearer about your own theory and what you actually believe.
If you claim to be a Bayesian fanatic, then actually reason in probabilities. Bring numbers. Be clear about how probably you consider various thesis that you made.
Then it’s worth noting that you being right means that a company might make a billion dollars of that knowledge. Especially if the solution is a special mix of hormones that could be patented to make a synthetic analog of the pig thyroid. That means that if you can convince the right person that there a 5% chance that you are right they might fund a 100,000$ trial to find out.
Just be to clear, I’m not a person who’s defending the status quo of the way the medical system works. In the last month I sat down with a person who had a cat allergy and did an NLP intervention to treat it. The next day he spent 30 minutes with a cat to test and didn’t have any allergy symptoms. I put down 2:1 chances of success beforehand in our shared prediction database.
Next month I’m at a workshops with 3-4 QS people a 3-4 academic scientists to talk about what
Let’s say it’s: “A person shy’s away from conflicts that arise when they speak up. As a result the fascia around the throat is tense. The tense fascia then presses on the thyroid. The thyroid doesn’t work properly because there’s pressure on it. Badly regulated hormones then do a mess elsewhere in the body.”
In my understanding the recent history of hormone supplementation generally isn’t good, because the body stops to produce less of the hormone if it’s supplemented.
However let’s spend more time investigating it here. Alexandra Carmichael who used to be one of the people at the head of the Quantified Self mothership build CureTogether as a database where people can report their results with different treatments.
It has 137 treatments for Fibromyalgia. The most sensible treatments seem to be getting more sleep, resting and and hot bathes. But there are also drugs listed. The first place is Low-Dose Naltrexone (LDN). Provided one doesn’t count the painkiller mariuanah, the second place as far as drug go goes to Thyroid hormone. In total it’s the 16 place in the list counting all other approaches.
That site’s a wonderful idea! And it looks as though LDN has some effect on the immune system.
So if we can trust it, it looks like the two things that attack the problem rather than the symptoms are LDN (suppresses immune reaction) and T3 (overwhelms my hypothesised immune-caused endocrine resistance).
This is the problem I keep having. Every time I see something new, it supports me. Can anyone find something that I can’t explain?
And just for the avoidance of doubt, I think taking pure T3 is a terrible idea. But John Lowe thought it worked for him and for many of his patients, and I trust John Lowe much more than I trust myself.
Science isn’t about explaining but about making successful predictions. Smart people can explain anything.
You’re conflating two different meanings of “explain”:
Construct a plausible narrative
Describe the underlying mechanism
I don’t think I’m conflating something in the context of this discussion. I think johnlawrenceaspden does focus on providing a plausible narrative instead of making falsifiable statements.
Is fair, but surely those predictions can be about bits of the medical literature that I haven’t seen yet, or haven’t understood properly, otherwise history would not be a rational endeavour.