I think if UFOs are aliens they on net increase our chance of survival. I mostly think Eliezer is right about AI risks, and if the aliens are here they clearly have the capacity to kill us but are not doing so and the aliens would likely not want us to create a paperclip maximizer. They might stop us from creating a paperclip maxmizer by killing us, but then we would be dead anyway if the aliens didn’t exist. But it’s also possible that the aliens will save us by preventing us from creating a paperclip maximizer.
It’s extremely weird that atomic weapons have not been used in anger since WW II, and we know that humanity got lucky on several occasions, UFOs seems to like to be around ships that have nuclear weapons and power so I assign some non-trivial probability to aliens having saved us from nuclear war.
As to the probability assessment, this is my first attempt so don’t put a lot of weight on it: If no aliens 75% (my guess, I don’t know Eliezer’s) chance we destroy ourselves. UFOs being aliens at 40%, and say 30% chance if this is true they would save us from killing ourselves and 3% chance they would choose to destroy us in a situation in which we wouldn’t do it to ourselves.
I think that if UFO are not aliens but some other weird things like non-organic life forms with limited intelligence or glitches in the matrix, it will be bad for us. I expect that non-alien-weird-UFO has higher probability than alien-UFOs.
Such life forms can either have a capability to kill humans in mass in non-rationally predictable situations – or humans will learn how to use them and will create new weapons which can travel instantly through space and cause new types of damage.
It’s extremely weird that atomic weapons have not been used in anger since WW II, and we know that humanity got lucky on several occasions, UFOs seems to like to be around ships that have nuclear weapons and power so I assign some non-trivial probability to aliens having saved us from nuclear war.
Bird watchers also tend to see more birds.
I’d imagine there are more sensors and eyeballs looking in the skies at high security facilities, thus more UAP.
What is your estimate of the probability that UFO (whatever it is) will cause human extinction? Or prevent it?
I think if UFOs are aliens they on net increase our chance of survival. I mostly think Eliezer is right about AI risks, and if the aliens are here they clearly have the capacity to kill us but are not doing so and the aliens would likely not want us to create a paperclip maximizer. They might stop us from creating a paperclip maxmizer by killing us, but then we would be dead anyway if the aliens didn’t exist. But it’s also possible that the aliens will save us by preventing us from creating a paperclip maximizer.
It’s extremely weird that atomic weapons have not been used in anger since WW II, and we know that humanity got lucky on several occasions, UFOs seems to like to be around ships that have nuclear weapons and power so I assign some non-trivial probability to aliens having saved us from nuclear war.
As to the probability assessment, this is my first attempt so don’t put a lot of weight on it: If no aliens 75% (my guess, I don’t know Eliezer’s) chance we destroy ourselves. UFOs being aliens at 40%, and say 30% chance if this is true they would save us from killing ourselves and 3% chance they would choose to destroy us in a situation in which we wouldn’t do it to ourselves.
Seem reasonable.
I think that if UFO are not aliens but some other weird things like non-organic life forms with limited intelligence or glitches in the matrix, it will be bad for us. I expect that non-alien-weird-UFO has higher probability than alien-UFOs.
Such life forms can either have a capability to kill humans in mass in non-rationally predictable situations – or humans will learn how to use them and will create new weapons which can travel instantly through space and cause new types of damage.
Bird watchers also tend to see more birds.
I’d imagine there are more sensors and eyeballs looking in the skies at high security facilities, thus more UAP.
What is the name of this bias?