My model definitely points towards a large proportion of polygraph machines just being empty boxes, since it’s about monopolizing advanced technology, not just monopolizing competent VIPs (as a side note, I think that “hypercompetent” was a poor choice of words on my part, since the crux of the post is that it’s difficult to evaluate the competence of opaque systems). Some lie detection machines will be running better and more modern tech than others, but it still makes sense to ask everyone a question that (ideally) only agents of foreign intelligence services would give off weird readings in response to.
A big reason why my competent inner regime model runs into falsifiability problems is because the competent trustworthy VIPs and the monopolized technology (e.g. functioning lie detectors) would be deployed conservatively, because stretching networks thin means more surface area, which means more risk of being compromised by foreign intelligence agencies.
My model definitely points towards a large proportion of polygraph machines just being empty boxes, since it’s about monopolizing advanced technology, not just monopolizing competent VIPs (as a side note, I think that “hypercompetent” was a poor choice of words on my part, since the crux of the post is that it’s difficult to evaluate the competence of opaque systems). Some lie detection machines will be running better and more modern tech than others, but it still makes sense to ask everyone a question that (ideally) only agents of foreign intelligence services would give off weird readings in response to.
A big reason why my competent inner regime model runs into falsifiability problems is because the competent trustworthy VIPs and the monopolized technology (e.g. functioning lie detectors) would be deployed conservatively, because stretching networks thin means more surface area, which means more risk of being compromised by foreign intelligence agencies.