The US presidential election has already ended but for weeks since it concluded people outside the USA (and arguably inside the USA) have been able to bet on it. At this point, it is very clear that Trump will not become president. But you can still make 20%+ returns shorting ‘TRUMPFEB’ on FTX. As recently as the 24th you could make 30%+. These markets resolve on Feb 1st. This easily ‘beats the market’ even if you give Trump a 1% chance and accept some counter-party risk.
I can think of various other ways to easily get 10%+ returns in months in the crytpo markets. For example several crypto futures are extremely underpriced relative to the underlying coin. At this point, I am wondering why the EMH was ever held in such high regard on lesswrong. These markets have fairly high liquidity. You could have gotten in millions of dollars.
One common response is “If you are right why are you not amazingly rich?”. This seems to assume that being right means you can convince people to give you tons of capital to work with. It is unclear why ‘being right’ would get you rewarded in this way. Notably even if you post advice publicly and it works you do not magically get billions of dollars. For example, I told people to Bet on Biden. Joe Biden did win but I did not make millions off this. Grey enlightenment has been posting very good financial advice for years and is likely quite wealthy. But I predict he is not a billionaire and does not run a hedge fund. His long and very good track record does not magically cause him to have access to billions in capital to invest.
At this point, it is very clear that Trump will not become president. But you can still make 20%+ returns shorting ‘TRUMPFEB’ on FTX.
There is a surprisingly large number of people who believe the election was clearly “stolen” and the Supreme Court will eventually decide for Trump. There’s a good piece in the NYT about this today. Should they think that the markets are inefficient because they can make 80% returns longing ‘TRUMPFEB’ on FTX? Presumably not, but that means by symmetry your argument is at least incomplete.
I can think of various other ways to easily get 10%+ returns in months in the crytpo markets. For example several crypto futures are extremely underpriced relative to the underlying coin.
This sounds more like my cup of tea. :) Can you provide more details either publicly or privately?
Yeah, to get 20%+ you have to lever up. You can either use other investments on ftx as collateral to avoid liquidation (there are many attractive ones including copies of SPY) or you have to tolerate some liquidation threshold.
The US presidential election has already ended but for weeks since it concluded people outside the USA (and arguably inside the USA) have been able to bet on it. At this point, it is very clear that Trump will not become president. But you can still make 20%+ returns shorting ‘TRUMPFEB’ on FTX. As recently as the 24th you could make 30%+. These markets resolve on Feb 1st. This easily ‘beats the market’ even if you give Trump a 1% chance and accept some counter-party risk.
I can think of various other ways to easily get 10%+ returns in months in the crytpo markets. For example several crypto futures are extremely underpriced relative to the underlying coin. At this point, I am wondering why the EMH was ever held in such high regard on lesswrong. These markets have fairly high liquidity. You could have gotten in millions of dollars.
One common response is “If you are right why are you not amazingly rich?”. This seems to assume that being right means you can convince people to give you tons of capital to work with. It is unclear why ‘being right’ would get you rewarded in this way. Notably even if you post advice publicly and it works you do not magically get billions of dollars. For example, I told people to Bet on Biden. Joe Biden did win but I did not make millions off this. Grey enlightenment has been posting very good financial advice for years and is likely quite wealthy. But I predict he is not a billionaire and does not run a hedge fund. His long and very good track record does not magically cause him to have access to billions in capital to invest.
There is a surprisingly large number of people who believe the election was clearly “stolen” and the Supreme Court will eventually decide for Trump. There’s a good piece in the NYT about this today. Should they think that the markets are inefficient because they can make 80% returns longing ‘TRUMPFEB’ on FTX? Presumably not, but that means by symmetry your argument is at least incomplete.
This sounds more like my cup of tea. :) Can you provide more details either publicly or privately?
I sent you a pm
TRUMPFEB is trading at 0.103 and has been under 0.12 for a while. Do you mean levered returns?
Yeah, to get 20%+ you have to lever up. You can either use other investments on ftx as collateral to avoid liquidation (there are many attractive ones including copies of SPY) or you have to tolerate some liquidation threshold.
Can you explain how the leverage system works on FTX for TRUMPFEB? The calculator on the site seems to produce bizzare results.
I’m interested as well.
I too am interested in the crypto opportunity.
Also interested in the crypto opportunity.
I’m also interested in this!
I’m interested in this and would also love to chat!
pm’ing