Maybe money is really important. We’ll probably have more money the longer we wait, as our savings accounts accumulate, our salaries rise, and our communities grow. This is a reason to favor long timelines… but a weak one IMO since I don’t think we are bottlenecked by money.
Maybe we are bottlenecked by knowledge though! Knowledge is clearly very important, and we’ll probably have more of it the longer we wait.
However, there are some tricky knots to untangle here. It’s true that we’ll know more about how to make TAI go well the closer we are to TAI, and thus no matter what our timelines are, we’ll be improving our knowledge the longer we wait. However, I feel like there is something fishy about this… On short timelines, TAI is closer, and so we have more knowledge of what it’ll be like, whereas on long timelines TAI is farther, so our current level of knowledge is less, and we’d need to wait a while just to catch up to where we would be if timelines were short.
I feel like these considerations roughly cancel out, but I’m not sure.
Maybe money is really important. We’ll probably have more money the longer we wait, as our savings accounts accumulate, our salaries rise, and our communities grow. This is a reason to favor long timelines… but a weak one IMO since I don’t think we are bottlenecked by money.
Maybe we are bottlenecked by knowledge though! Knowledge is clearly very important, and we’ll probably have more of it the longer we wait.
However, there are some tricky knots to untangle here. It’s true that we’ll know more about how to make TAI go well the closer we are to TAI, and thus no matter what our timelines are, we’ll be improving our knowledge the longer we wait. However, I feel like there is something fishy about this… On short timelines, TAI is closer, and so we have more knowledge of what it’ll be like, whereas on long timelines TAI is farther, so our current level of knowledge is less, and we’d need to wait a while just to catch up to where we would be if timelines were short.
I feel like these considerations roughly cancel out, but I’m not sure.