Tractibility is correlated with whether we use prosaic AI methods (hard to make safe) or more principled, transparent architectures (not as hard.) Maybe we are more likely to use prosaic AI methods the shorter the timelines. OTOH, on long timelines we’ll have awesome amounts of compute at our disposal and it’ll be easier to brute-force the solution by evolving AI etc.
I think this is overall a weak consideration in favor of longer timelines being more tractible.
Tractibility is correlated with whether we use prosaic AI methods (hard to make safe) or more principled, transparent architectures (not as hard.) Maybe we are more likely to use prosaic AI methods the shorter the timelines. OTOH, on long timelines we’ll have awesome amounts of compute at our disposal and it’ll be easier to brute-force the solution by evolving AI etc.
I think this is overall a weak consideration in favor of longer timelines being more tractible.