On MIlky Way vs. Observable universe, I would expect a very high correlation between the results of different galaxies. So simple multiplication is misleading.
That said, even with a very high correlation anything over 1% for Milky way should get you to 99+ for universe.
I admit that I did not seriously consider the number of galaxies in the universe, or realize off the cuff that it was that high and give that enough consideration. I estimated a fairly high number for Milky way but gave only 95% to the universe, which was clearly a mistake.
On MIlky Way vs. Observable universe, I would expect a very high correlation between the results of different galaxies. So simple multiplication is misleading.
That said, even with a very high correlation anything over 1% for Milky way should get you to 99+ for universe.
I admit that I did not seriously consider the number of galaxies in the universe, or realize off the cuff that it was that high and give that enough consideration. I estimated a fairly high number for Milky way but gave only 95% to the universe, which was clearly a mistake.
Not necessarily, that depends on the nature of your unsertainty, as Wes_W pointed out elsewhere in the thread.