I do actually think $7T is enough that it would materially accelerate Moore’s law, since “production gets more efficient over time” style laws tend to be be functions of “quantity produced” not of time.
In a world where we’re currently spending ~$600B/year on semiconductors, spending a few billion (current largest AI training runs) is insignificant, but if Sam really does manage to spend $7T/5 years, that would be basically tripling our semiconductor capacity.
There might also be negative feedback loops, because when you try to spend a large amount of money quickly you tend to do so less efficiently, so I doubt Moore’s law would literally triple. But if you thought (as Kurtzweil predicts) AGI will arrive circa 2035 based on Moore’s law alone, an investment of this (frankly ridiculous) scale reducing that time from 10 years down to 5 is conceivable.
I do actually think $7T is enough that it would materially accelerate Moore’s law, since “production gets more efficient over time” style laws tend to be be functions of “quantity produced” not of time.
In a world where we’re currently spending ~$600B/year on semiconductors, spending a few billion (current largest AI training runs) is insignificant, but if Sam really does manage to spend $7T/5 years, that would be basically tripling our semiconductor capacity.
There might also be negative feedback loops, because when you try to spend a large amount of money quickly you tend to do so less efficiently, so I doubt Moore’s law would literally triple. But if you thought (as Kurtzweil predicts) AGI will arrive circa 2035 based on Moore’s law alone, an investment of this (frankly ridiculous) scale reducing that time from 10 years down to 5 is conceivable.