Probability is in the mind. If you’re that much better at chess than you opponent, you can execute excessively complicated traps just to amuse yourself, and still be quite certain of victory. If Riddle knew more and thought better than Dumbledore, enough so that he can model his reactions precisely (as he seems able to) then what seems like an unlikely plot may be to Riddle merely an entertaining diversion.
That said, I agree that Godric’s Hollow probably didn’t go as Riddle planned.
Doing stupid things to amuse yourself seems like exactly the opposite of everything Voldemort has ever done. If ever anyone has epitomized ruthless efficiency, he’s the guy.
Quirrell frequently brags about things he shouldn’t mention, things with massive blowback potential. He also obvious relishes outsmarting and dominating others.
I’m not just disagreeing for argument’s sake. Look at the plot that resulted in the three-way tie in the underwater Defense battle. Clearly the universe of this fic allows absurdly complex plots to work when the plotters are of a high enough level.
Look at the plot that resulted in the three-way tie in the underwater Defense battle. Clearly the universe of this fic allows absurdly complex plots to work when the plotters are of a high enough level.
Quirrel himself noted that plans that contingent on uncontrollable events tend to fail. Dumbledore wasn’t counting on that plan working, as he said, “That’s why it’s important to have more than one plot going at once.” The plan that resulted in the three way tie succeeded largely due to luck.
Look at the plot that resulted in the three-way tie in the underwater Defense battle.
It only looks complicated. Yes, it was not extremely probable that Blaise would be amongst the last few standing. But very quickly all teams raced towards an even score in a fairly predictable self-organizing way. So there weren’t really a lot of moving parts there, just one complicated system with fairly predictable behavior, and some complicated-looking plotting to get Blaise’s cooperation, and just a bit of luck that Blaise didn’t get knocked out earlier (helped by Blaise being mostly interested in survival instead of racking up points)
Doing stupid things to amuse yourself seems like exactly the opposite of everything Voldemort has ever done. If ever anyone has epitomized ruthless efficiency, he’s the guy.
That does not match my model of canon Voldemort, and I assume that MoR pre-Harry Voldemort was very similar.
I expect Voldemort to kill/torture valuable minions because of impulses (“to amuse yourself”) even if it would harm his overall goals.
“The Rule of Rationalist Fiction states thwat rationality is not magic.”
In other words, such a hypothesis about Voldemort’s plan is defensible only if there’s a better explanation for how he could pull it off than “he’s just that good.”
Granted, Voldemort also has access to magic. But based on what we know about how magic works in this universe, it seems unlikely that, even given magic, Voldemort could acquire the knowledge necessary to be confident of making such an excessively complicated plan work.
Chess is completely orderly. In chess, you don’t have to deal with unknown unknowns, or pieces getting moved around by chance, or your opponent inventing new pieces in the middle of the game, etc. Just because you can execute extremely complicated plans in chess doesn’t mean that the plausibility transfers to real life.
Probability is in the mind. If you’re that much better at chess than you opponent, you can execute excessively complicated traps just to amuse yourself, and still be quite certain of victory. If Riddle knew more and thought better than Dumbledore, enough so that he can model his reactions precisely (as he seems able to) then what seems like an unlikely plot may be to Riddle merely an entertaining diversion.
That said, I agree that Godric’s Hollow probably didn’t go as Riddle planned.
Doing stupid things to amuse yourself seems like exactly the opposite of everything Voldemort has ever done. If ever anyone has epitomized ruthless efficiency, he’s the guy.
Quirrell frequently brags about things he shouldn’t mention, things with massive blowback potential. He also obvious relishes outsmarting and dominating others.
I’m not just disagreeing for argument’s sake. Look at the plot that resulted in the three-way tie in the underwater Defense battle. Clearly the universe of this fic allows absurdly complex plots to work when the plotters are of a high enough level.
Quirrel himself noted that plans that contingent on uncontrollable events tend to fail. Dumbledore wasn’t counting on that plan working, as he said, “That’s why it’s important to have more than one plot going at once.” The plan that resulted in the three way tie succeeded largely due to luck.
It only looks complicated. Yes, it was not extremely probable that Blaise would be amongst the last few standing. But very quickly all teams raced towards an even score in a fairly predictable self-organizing way. So there weren’t really a lot of moving parts there, just one complicated system with fairly predictable behavior, and some complicated-looking plotting to get Blaise’s cooperation, and just a bit of luck that Blaise didn’t get knocked out earlier (helped by Blaise being mostly interested in survival instead of racking up points)
That does not match my model of canon Voldemort, and I assume that MoR pre-Harry Voldemort was very similar.
I expect Voldemort to kill/torture valuable minions because of impulses (“to amuse yourself”) even if it would harm his overall goals.
Why would MoR Voldemort be different pre-Harry or post-Harry?
“The Rule of Rationalist Fiction states thwat rationality is not magic.”
In other words, such a hypothesis about Voldemort’s plan is defensible only if there’s a better explanation for how he could pull it off than “he’s just that good.”
Granted, Voldemort also has access to magic. But based on what we know about how magic works in this universe, it seems unlikely that, even given magic, Voldemort could acquire the knowledge necessary to be confident of making such an excessively complicated plan work.
Chess is completely orderly. In chess, you don’t have to deal with unknown unknowns, or pieces getting moved around by chance, or your opponent inventing new pieces in the middle of the game, etc. Just because you can execute extremely complicated plans in chess doesn’t mean that the plausibility transfers to real life.