That was when Father had told Draco about the Rule of Three, which was that any plot which required more than three different things to happen would never work in real life.
Father had further explained that since only a fool would attempt a plot that was as complicated as possible, the real limit was two.
Your plan is unworkable, because the probability that everything needed for the plan to happen would happen is too low. HPMOR!Voldemort is not a fool, so he would not have planned an unworkable plan (and, as Hat and Cloak, advised Blaise Zambini not to try such plans). Therefore this is not Voldemort’s plan.
Fine. You accept that Voldemort did rise to power, yes? Let that be one plot that had however many “different things to happen” but worked. That is one plot with one payout that is collected without being dependent on other plots and covers step 1.
In step 2 his plot depends on his most idealistic enemies breaking from their ideals. That is 1 “different things to happen”. He maybe tries a lot of different time, and eventually the Aberforth Event occurs, so the plot progresses.
Step 2a is the same plot and includes another “different thing.” After he kills Narcissa, his formerly idealistic enemies must claim responsibility. He has conditioned them to do this in the way he has spread terror and treated them, so it does not come out of the blue, but it is the second “different thing” for that plot.
It works and he is rewarded with a conflict without escalation, where he can continue to amass power while his own side does not get out of control and his enemies become more reasonable and less idealistic, therefore easier to manipulate and less unpredictable. This second plot covers steps 2 and 2a. He could continue at this point as he had, building power for a faction, taking different steps or starting different plots.
The third plot has the goal of unity and only depends on two “different things.” The first is that he have an opportunity to step out of the game, the second is that he has an opportunity to step back in. Again, there is the throwing shit at the wall approach, here. He can set up situation after situation that might lead to an opportunity to step out or in, and take the ones that he expects to work best.
When this plot is completed, he is rewarded with control of a new third side in a two sided war. He can do what he wants with this new faction, execute any number of plots from this point forward. This covers steps 3, 4, & 5.
The fourth plot is what he is preparing for, but isn’t executing as far as I can tell, taking over the government. Whatever this depends on, you know he’s up to something and this is no worse an answer than many other reasonable answers.
I’m fairly certain that Voldemort is not planning a party, though. That was a joke.
Well, yes, if it was planned from the beginning. It could have been improvised.
To summarize Percent_Carbon in a way that brings out the potential that the plan he explained was improvised…
Step 1. Conquer Britain as Voldemort. Doesn’t work as well as hoped, Britain is divided, not united.
Step 2. Use power to try to set up a situation that you think you can exploit later. Wait years before you see a good way to exploit it
Step 3. See the way Harry Potter came out, see an opportunity to conquer a united Britain, and go for it
Probability is in the mind. If you’re that much better at chess than you opponent, you can execute excessively complicated traps just to amuse yourself, and still be quite certain of victory. If Riddle knew more and thought better than Dumbledore, enough so that he can model his reactions precisely (as he seems able to) then what seems like an unlikely plot may be to Riddle merely an entertaining diversion.
That said, I agree that Godric’s Hollow probably didn’t go as Riddle planned.
Doing stupid things to amuse yourself seems like exactly the opposite of everything Voldemort has ever done. If ever anyone has epitomized ruthless efficiency, he’s the guy.
Quirrell frequently brags about things he shouldn’t mention, things with massive blowback potential. He also obvious relishes outsmarting and dominating others.
I’m not just disagreeing for argument’s sake. Look at the plot that resulted in the three-way tie in the underwater Defense battle. Clearly the universe of this fic allows absurdly complex plots to work when the plotters are of a high enough level.
Look at the plot that resulted in the three-way tie in the underwater Defense battle. Clearly the universe of this fic allows absurdly complex plots to work when the plotters are of a high enough level.
Quirrel himself noted that plans that contingent on uncontrollable events tend to fail. Dumbledore wasn’t counting on that plan working, as he said, “That’s why it’s important to have more than one plot going at once.” The plan that resulted in the three way tie succeeded largely due to luck.
Look at the plot that resulted in the three-way tie in the underwater Defense battle.
It only looks complicated. Yes, it was not extremely probable that Blaise would be amongst the last few standing. But very quickly all teams raced towards an even score in a fairly predictable self-organizing way. So there weren’t really a lot of moving parts there, just one complicated system with fairly predictable behavior, and some complicated-looking plotting to get Blaise’s cooperation, and just a bit of luck that Blaise didn’t get knocked out earlier (helped by Blaise being mostly interested in survival instead of racking up points)
Doing stupid things to amuse yourself seems like exactly the opposite of everything Voldemort has ever done. If ever anyone has epitomized ruthless efficiency, he’s the guy.
That does not match my model of canon Voldemort, and I assume that MoR pre-Harry Voldemort was very similar.
I expect Voldemort to kill/torture valuable minions because of impulses (“to amuse yourself”) even if it would harm his overall goals.
“The Rule of Rationalist Fiction states thwat rationality is not magic.”
In other words, such a hypothesis about Voldemort’s plan is defensible only if there’s a better explanation for how he could pull it off than “he’s just that good.”
Granted, Voldemort also has access to magic. But based on what we know about how magic works in this universe, it seems unlikely that, even given magic, Voldemort could acquire the knowledge necessary to be confident of making such an excessively complicated plan work.
Chess is completely orderly. In chess, you don’t have to deal with unknown unknowns, or pieces getting moved around by chance, or your opponent inventing new pieces in the middle of the game, etc. Just because you can execute extremely complicated plans in chess doesn’t mean that the plausibility transfers to real life.
From Ch. 24:
Your plan is unworkable, because the probability that everything needed for the plan to happen would happen is too low. HPMOR!Voldemort is not a fool, so he would not have planned an unworkable plan (and, as Hat and Cloak, advised Blaise Zambini not to try such plans). Therefore this is not Voldemort’s plan.
Fine. You accept that Voldemort did rise to power, yes? Let that be one plot that had however many “different things to happen” but worked. That is one plot with one payout that is collected without being dependent on other plots and covers step 1.
In step 2 his plot depends on his most idealistic enemies breaking from their ideals. That is 1 “different things to happen”. He maybe tries a lot of different time, and eventually the Aberforth Event occurs, so the plot progresses.
Step 2a is the same plot and includes another “different thing.” After he kills Narcissa, his formerly idealistic enemies must claim responsibility. He has conditioned them to do this in the way he has spread terror and treated them, so it does not come out of the blue, but it is the second “different thing” for that plot.
It works and he is rewarded with a conflict without escalation, where he can continue to amass power while his own side does not get out of control and his enemies become more reasonable and less idealistic, therefore easier to manipulate and less unpredictable. This second plot covers steps 2 and 2a. He could continue at this point as he had, building power for a faction, taking different steps or starting different plots.
The third plot has the goal of unity and only depends on two “different things.” The first is that he have an opportunity to step out of the game, the second is that he has an opportunity to step back in. Again, there is the throwing shit at the wall approach, here. He can set up situation after situation that might lead to an opportunity to step out or in, and take the ones that he expects to work best.
When this plot is completed, he is rewarded with control of a new third side in a two sided war. He can do what he wants with this new faction, execute any number of plots from this point forward. This covers steps 3, 4, & 5.
The fourth plot is what he is preparing for, but isn’t executing as far as I can tell, taking over the government. Whatever this depends on, you know he’s up to something and this is no worse an answer than many other reasonable answers.
I’m fairly certain that Voldemort is not planning a party, though. That was a joke.
Well, yes, if it was planned from the beginning. It could have been improvised. To summarize Percent_Carbon in a way that brings out the potential that the plan he explained was improvised… Step 1. Conquer Britain as Voldemort. Doesn’t work as well as hoped, Britain is divided, not united. Step 2. Use power to try to set up a situation that you think you can exploit later. Wait years before you see a good way to exploit it Step 3. See the way Harry Potter came out, see an opportunity to conquer a united Britain, and go for it
Probability is in the mind. If you’re that much better at chess than you opponent, you can execute excessively complicated traps just to amuse yourself, and still be quite certain of victory. If Riddle knew more and thought better than Dumbledore, enough so that he can model his reactions precisely (as he seems able to) then what seems like an unlikely plot may be to Riddle merely an entertaining diversion.
That said, I agree that Godric’s Hollow probably didn’t go as Riddle planned.
Doing stupid things to amuse yourself seems like exactly the opposite of everything Voldemort has ever done. If ever anyone has epitomized ruthless efficiency, he’s the guy.
Quirrell frequently brags about things he shouldn’t mention, things with massive blowback potential. He also obvious relishes outsmarting and dominating others.
I’m not just disagreeing for argument’s sake. Look at the plot that resulted in the three-way tie in the underwater Defense battle. Clearly the universe of this fic allows absurdly complex plots to work when the plotters are of a high enough level.
Quirrel himself noted that plans that contingent on uncontrollable events tend to fail. Dumbledore wasn’t counting on that plan working, as he said, “That’s why it’s important to have more than one plot going at once.” The plan that resulted in the three way tie succeeded largely due to luck.
It only looks complicated. Yes, it was not extremely probable that Blaise would be amongst the last few standing. But very quickly all teams raced towards an even score in a fairly predictable self-organizing way. So there weren’t really a lot of moving parts there, just one complicated system with fairly predictable behavior, and some complicated-looking plotting to get Blaise’s cooperation, and just a bit of luck that Blaise didn’t get knocked out earlier (helped by Blaise being mostly interested in survival instead of racking up points)
That does not match my model of canon Voldemort, and I assume that MoR pre-Harry Voldemort was very similar.
I expect Voldemort to kill/torture valuable minions because of impulses (“to amuse yourself”) even if it would harm his overall goals.
Why would MoR Voldemort be different pre-Harry or post-Harry?
“The Rule of Rationalist Fiction states thwat rationality is not magic.”
In other words, such a hypothesis about Voldemort’s plan is defensible only if there’s a better explanation for how he could pull it off than “he’s just that good.”
Granted, Voldemort also has access to magic. But based on what we know about how magic works in this universe, it seems unlikely that, even given magic, Voldemort could acquire the knowledge necessary to be confident of making such an excessively complicated plan work.
Chess is completely orderly. In chess, you don’t have to deal with unknown unknowns, or pieces getting moved around by chance, or your opponent inventing new pieces in the middle of the game, etc. Just because you can execute extremely complicated plans in chess doesn’t mean that the plausibility transfers to real life.