Are there any explicit approaches you’re thinking of that can be taken? Truth be told I don’t see how we would realistically stave off this scenario, other than the harsh quarantine measures that worked in China.
Harsh quarantining is the main one. Also promoting low hanging fruit like the stuff we’ve found on the CJPA thread.
I totally disagree. I think “someone’s best guess and go with it” is going to be horribly mismatched with what we actually want from stores and supplies, and will be actively harmful.
Fair enough. It seems this is a pretty important prior. If you’re right about best guesses being horribly inadequate, then I do agree that it would be a bad idea overall.
I think this is simply naive.
Perhaps. You make some good points, and planning fallacy is certainly a thing, so I think your estimate of $100B is probably closer to the truth than my $15B one.
But even at $100B it still seems like a bargain. And I think that similar planning fallacy-related points can be made about estimating what it would cost us if it spread to eg. 10% of the world’s population. Eg. it probably costs a lot more than what our first estimates would be.
This is a very risky gamble, both from an economic point of view but also unfortunately as a career move.
Is it? I’m not well-versed with politics but my impression is that doing things in the name of safety is good for electability. Eg. through the roof military spending.
Well, that’s just one example, and I can also think of counterexamples. There are of course those who want to cut health care spending. And departments like the CDC seem to be underfunded. So overall I get a weak sense that it’d be a risky career move.
However, worrying about your career seems like a big lost purpose to me. Why acquire political power if you’re not going to cash it in at a time like this? I doubt they’re saving it up for something more important. It seems more like they seek power for power’s sake. But I digress.
Harsh quarantining is the main one. Also promoting low hanging fruit like the stuff we’ve found on the CJPA thread.
Fair enough. It seems this is a pretty important prior. If you’re right about best guesses being horribly inadequate, then I do agree that it would be a bad idea overall.
Perhaps. You make some good points, and planning fallacy is certainly a thing, so I think your estimate of $100B is probably closer to the truth than my $15B one.
But even at $100B it still seems like a bargain. And I think that similar planning fallacy-related points can be made about estimating what it would cost us if it spread to eg. 10% of the world’s population. Eg. it probably costs a lot more than what our first estimates would be.
Is it? I’m not well-versed with politics but my impression is that doing things in the name of safety is good for electability. Eg. through the roof military spending.
Well, that’s just one example, and I can also think of counterexamples. There are of course those who want to cut health care spending. And departments like the CDC seem to be underfunded. So overall I get a weak sense that it’d be a risky career move.
However, worrying about your career seems like a big lost purpose to me. Why acquire political power if you’re not going to cash it in at a time like this? I doubt they’re saving it up for something more important. It seems more like they seek power for power’s sake. But I digress.